Did I miss a river bet?

[TGoldman]

Who bets the river and why? If we check, is it to induce a bluff or should hero consider folding to a large bet? Villain is very loose playing any four pre-flop and aggressive post-flop.

PL Omaha Hi/Low $2-$2
Hero ($200)
Villain ($350)

Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

PRE-FLOP
Villain calls $2, 5 folds, SB checks, Hero raises the pot, villain calls $6, SB folds.

(Pot $18) FLOP 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $18, villain calls $18.

(Pot $54) TURN 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $54, villain calls $54.

(Pot $162) RIVER 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero ...

[Wintermute]

It's pretty tough to decide whether your hand is good here since you didn't share any info about the opponent, but considering the guy didn't ever raise I'd put him on a weak 5, an overpair, or a weird draw. The weighting depends on how good he is, and you give no info about that.

However, my general line of thinking in this situation is this: decide whether you'll call if you check and he pots it. If the answer to this is yes, then you either want to (1) value bet or (2) check and induce a bluff, depending on your opponent's level of aggression. If the answer is no, then either bluff half your stack or put out a 1/4-stack blocking bet or check-fold. Just try to avoid potting it when you feel very certain that you are ahead OR behind.

[TGoldman]

Thanks WM, I think your general line of thinking is good advice. I wanted to keep villain's exact stats ambiguous in order to get some advice on the general situation and you provided that. Villain's exact stats were... 85% VPIP, 30% PFR, AF-Tot 2.18 over 47 hands. The river action for the hand in question went check-check and I won the pot (villain mucked his hand and PokerRoom.com doesn't allow me to see mucked hole cards).

[emptyshell]

Generally, you're beaten. I'm wondering if WM noticed that this was full ring. If Villain is a maniac maybe you can check-call, but blocking bets do not work well against maniacs. Otherwise, it's check-fold.

In fact, against a half-way decent player, I give up after the flop. You're much more likely to suffer a big loss than enjoy a big win here.

Please tell me if I'm unintentionally channeling Smasharoo here.....

[Wintermute]

with an 85% VPIP and a reasonably high postflop aggression (am I reading that right) I think it's safe to assume you're ahead on the river and put out a 1/3-2/3 value bet. (Unless you know he'll bluff if you check.)

[gergery]

Against an opponent like that i think check-call earns you the most.

If he has a good 5 you should check fold.

If he has a bad 5 it depends, either check-fold or bet max.
If he has any 4 (unlikely) then check-fold or bet max, with bet max is probly best.

With those stats he could have anything including KKxx thru TTxx or busted 2-pair and if he has nothing he very likely bets, in which case you only make $ on a check-call.

--greg