Spewing? - Page 2

JKDStudent · #11 07-23-2005, 02:55 AM

I was simply not thinking of the J coming in. I was more concerned with the backdoor draws. If another heart comes, or one of our straight cards, that could make a good hand for someone else. I'd rather get the next one or two cards for cheap, rather than getting trapped between people who like their hands. Also, if my backdoor straight comes in, I don't want to split the pot with a single Jack. Yes, I have two of them, but if there's another in a hand... and if I do get my miracle jack, that puts three to a straight on the board, and with the pot being that size, gutshots are correct to call. I didn't think I wanted to tempt fate.

That's the thought process, anyway, as horrible as it may be.

*Edit* What kind of alcohol? And if you're in Jersey, I'll take you to see my bartender friend. She's pretty good at hookin' a guy up.

Dave G. · #12 07-23-2005, 03:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather get the next one or two cards for cheap, rather than getting trapped between people who like their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with a free (or cheap) card play here is that this extra card doesn't have much value to you unless one of your backdoor draws improves on the turn. Lets say it's checked to you on the turn.

Your BD draws don't improve
You only have a 4.3% chance of improving your hand (2/46 chance of getting your river J). In such a case, 95.7% of the time, this play will be worthless to you. The times that it does work, you may still lose to a straight, or MP2 might have KKK and you are still behind.

BD draws improve
If a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, the next card will only help you 19.6% of the time (the percentage of the time that the next card is also a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for your flush), and some of those times someone will have a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If a Q comes, it will help 17.4% of the time when an A or T follows, and if an A or a T comes, it will only help 8.7% of the time (because you then need your gutshot Q to come in), and some of these times you will be chopping or lose to a rivered flush / boat.

So you only really like this play IF one of your backdoor draws improves on the turn. There are 19 turn cards that can make you like this play (4 As, Ts and Qs, and 7 other [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). There's only a 40% chance that your raise will be useful to you (not only you will win far less than this, but it's going to work far less frequently too).

Since MP2 capped preflop and lead the flop, the chances of this actually working are quite low, so what you have is a very low percentage play. Even worse, if MP2 has KKK, your J outs will only leave you drawing to quads.

Another thing is the pot is so big that even with your raise, gutshots are correct to call the flop. In fact they have much more equity here than you, particularly if MP2 has KKK. So it's your money padding the pot for them. If you do end up chopping with another straight, it's the other guy that got the ass end of the deal, not you.

It's right to fight for big pots but this is a situation where no amount of fighting is going to give you any leverage in the hand. You need to just call and hope for the best. If you do hit your J and someone gets their straight, you now have 10 outs to a boat or quads to beat them, which is a lot better than you were agaist MP2 (as long as MP2 doesn't have KKK).

As for alcohol, Jim Beam or Chivas Regal are my favourites... and I'm not in Jersey unfortunately. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

TomBrooks · #13 07-23-2005, 03:48 AM

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Ok, both of these situations I think I'm just giving away money. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hand 1.
My thoughts are I'm wondering at why so many people throw they're money away on underpairs, why they ignore when they are the preflop raiser and they get bet into on the flop, or they are the preflop raiser and they get raised on the flop with a pair of Queens when there is a King and an Ace on the flop, and then they post the hand in this forum and ask silly questions. I wonder why people like this are playing 1/2 instead of .5/1 or .25/.50. I just shake my head and wonder. And the posts keep coming...same thing, day after day.

TomBrooks · #14 07-23-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's impossible to know what exactly to do without reads, but here goes anyhow:

[/ QUOTE ]Ehhhhh. (sound of buzzer) Wrong answer, sorry. Let me fix your quote.

[ QUOTE ]
It is easy to know exactly what to do in this situation without any reads whatsoever.

[/ QUOTE ]

TomBrooks · #15 07-23-2005, 03:56 AM

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Hand 2: I hate my flop raise here. Villain was pretty tight; If I hadn't worked out I was behind already the King high flop should have sealed it, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes

irishpint · #16 07-23-2005, 04:03 AM

i play them both the same. except i win.

Percy101 · #17 07-23-2005, 04:08 AM

heeey, be nice. im just playing at a level i feel comfortable with. I built up my bankroll from playing 50/1, and as for the 'silly' questions... sometimes its helpful for them to be answered to get the right play really drilled in, to make sure they don't happen again.

@bsolute_luck · #18 07-23-2005, 12:16 PM

i'm probably just echoing everybody else, but some people's posts were so unneccesarily looooong.

hand #1: check/fold the flop. 2 overcards, large field. even if CO bluffs a bet here, if someone c/r you know where you are. if no one c/r, i'd call. could be a bluff, and you have a BDSD with a large pot and getting ~11:1 and you have good position on the turn.

hand #2: check/call, check/fold the turn UI. you have less overcards to worry about, flush draws aren't folding, and even if an overcard calls on the turn, that improves your draw.

i think that is succinct enough [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]