The only thing I did right was 3 bet pre-flop.

[MrStretchie]

Chances of a random two cards containing two clubs are much lower now that 3 of the 5 known cards are clubs. ~4.2% that either opponent flopped a flush.

The chances that at least one of them flopped a flush are about 1/12, not 1/8. Of course, either way, going into C/C mode on the flop is nuts.

[ike]

This math is all kinds of confused. Get a probability and statistics textbook, or if you're not that ambitious the intro to gambling math chapter in Getting the Best of It by Sklansky is a pretty good quick and dirty explanation of the stuff you absolutely must know.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if club comes on river and it is heads-up I would check-call

[/ QUOTE ]

If heads-up I think bet/fold is the better line on the river.

[Carmine]

I bet out on this flop with top two and call a raise. On a non- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn I either bet/3-bet or C/R depending on the aggression of my opponent. I never give credit for a flopped flush against two with a less than 1% chance. I'm also not giving credit for a steal raiser having AA/QQ especially with me holding one of each. It's going to take a turn cap to convince me and go into check/call mode on the river with my FH outs.

If anyone sees any problems with this line please speak up.

[Net Warrior]

Ok, thanks for the heads up on my fuzzy math. So, the odds I'm ahead are even greater than I thought. I'm ordering Hold'em Odds Book by Mike Petriv as we speak. I'm actually shocked that I had a leak of this magnitude in my game. Good summation Carmine; thanks to all for the feedback.

[Net Warrior]

I just got Texas Hold'em Odds by Catalin Baroianu so I thought I'd revisit this thread. If I understand these charts correctly, vs 2 opponents, the chances of at least one of them making a flush by the river when 3 suited cards flop are 30.402%. OTOH, the chances of my improving to a full house by the river are 16.466% So, barring the case where one of my opponents has AA or QQ pockets, I am behind by the river only 13.936% of the time. Adding in AA & QQ pockets or other flopped sets reduces my chances some more but I'm still a clear favorite, as virtually all of you pointed out.

[Robb]

The first thing I thought of is fear. Respectfully NW, your post oozes with it and I'm surprised the responders let you off so easily. I'd be willing to bet money that this isn't just one leak you have to plug as you mentioned. Even your use of the word danger implies you're the hunted not the hunter. To fear a set or a flush on the flop is bad. Other posters have given you fine alternatives to the way you played the hand but it sounds like you are missing some fundamentals, imo. I would suggest getting to know Ed Miller's book backwards and forwards if you don't already. Not trying to be an a*ss, but I'm almost positive there are other hands you are not playing close to optimally based on this one post.

And keep posting!

[DrSavage]

First of all, there's no reason for you think that you are behind at any point in this hand. Check raise the flop and cap if 3bet. Bet the turn, call the raise, make sure noone gets a free card.

[phish]

Yeah, you played this horribly post-flop. Do you usually play this scared? Your results can't be too good.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
It's about the 5th orbit and I haven’t played a hand yet! My cards have been ice cold and both these guy have been stealing from me regularly. Bu is a bit loose but plays ok after the flop. SB collcalls too much but is otherwise ok. The table has been fairly tight aggressive but it’s the only ten handed 10-20 game going at Pokerroom at the moment.

I’m in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Folded to Bu who raises. SB coldcalls, and I 3 bet. Bu caps, we both call. 3 players and 12sb’s to the Flop:

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I flop top 2 pair with no club on an all club board. I’m possibly way ahead, pretty far behind, or in great danger of falling behind. I have a great deal of trouble coming up with the right game plan in these situations. With this size pot, I’m not going to get a flush draw to fold. I decided that the pot was big enough so I when into check call mode but that sure seems wrong both then and now.

So, how do you maximize profit while minimizing loss in this spot?

SB checks, I checked, Bu bet and we both called. The Turn:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, I checked, Bu bet, we both called. The River:

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checked, I checked, Bu bet, SB (apparently on a draw) folder, I called.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would check/call the flop and check/raise a safe turn card.

IMO, this is one of those situations where your equity changes dramatically on the turn. Plus, if a non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits, you have great relative position to make them both pay 2 BB to see river.