Where do you lay this one down, if at all......

[DpR]

BB is 46/11/0.8, HJ is 17/12/2.4

Been at the table a couple rounds, haven't seen the fish do anything totally crazy. HJ is close to standard 2+2.

1 limper and HJ raises, I three bet in SB with JJ, all call. Flop 789 rainbow. I bet, all call. Turn K to put 2 clubs on the board. I bet, BB raises, 1 fold, HJ thinks for about 10 seconds and cold calls. I call. River is a non-club 9.

I check intending to call BB but not overcall. Waste of chips? Correct plan?

[Net Warrior]

In EP I always try to remember the advice from HPFAP21 about checking the Turn. Sometimes I remember and sometimes I don't but I usually wish I had. In this case I'd like to have remembered to check and then to have calculated the odd vs my outs when the betting got back to me.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
In EP I always try to remember the advice from HPFAP21 about checking the Turn. Sometimes I remember and sometimes I don't but I usually wish I had. In this case I'd like to have remembered to check and then to have calculated the odd vs my outs when the betting got back to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate that advice on this particular hand. The fish may bet something retarded and allows the good player to puish me off my hand - that is far less likely if I bet.

So you are trying to get out of this hand on the turn? Whatwould your river plan be if you were in my position?

[Net Warrior]

I'd rather have the additional information on the Turn and face 2 cold then bet on the installment plan.

BB sounds like he's protecting a K. He has to have something to get this far with unless he's a total fish. HJ might have something like KQs, KJs, AJs, ATs, since he likely caps Preflop with AKo and likely raised on the Flop with an overpair. All in all, you're behind a good deal of the time. You're getting 12-1 on a River call which is sufficient. I'd call/overcall if I'd close the action.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is 46/11/0.8, HJ is 17/12/2.4

Been at the table a couple rounds, haven't seen the fish do anything totally crazy. HJ is close to standard 2+2.

1 limper and HJ raises, I three bet in SB with JJ, all call. Flop 789 rainbow. I bet, all call. Turn K to put 2 clubs on the board. I bet, BB raises, 1 fold, HJ thinks for about 10 seconds and cold calls. I call. River is a non-club 9.

I check intending to call BB but not overcall. Waste of chips? Correct plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not particularly surprised this post got few responses. On the river, BB bet, HJ called and I folded. BB showed 7,10 and HJ showed AQ clubs.

I made this fold virtually 100% sure I was beat. I am actually still at a loss as to how HJ called the river with A high.

I made this post mostly becasue there have been so many posts recently talking about how easy folds are on the river, with a lot of 'there is not way you are good here 7% of the time' commnents. I think recently the board has been underestimating these % - in what is a huge switch from the sentiment a year ago. Some popular posters started playing live games and folding rivers has started to become more en vogue.

I think hands like this one are still happening a lot more than people expect. I do not think I am saving 16 bets by folding this river before the next time something retarded is happening and I am ahead.

[Net Warrior]

My bad 12-1. Right, it's 16-1 on the River call, closing the action. You have to be ahead at least once in 17 times with those unimproved draws on the board. Easy call.

[damaniac]

You MAY have a point, but your current sample size in this "we fold too much in big pots and we actually had the best hand"=1, and of course it is a self-selected sample.

Look, you lost. You folded a winner. Just because you folded a winner here doesn't mean you are ahead more than 7% of the time this happens. Heck, you could be behind 99% of the time in this situation, but guess what? 1% of the time, you'll still be folding the best hand. What can I say, weird stuff happens, don't look to make "big laydowns" for the sake of doing it, but just continue to think about your opponents, the hands they can have, the action, and the pot size when making your decision, don't decide that because you lost a big pot for 1 bet, you need to call every river bet because someone "might" be making a move.

[lil feller]

Here's the part of the new 2+2 mentality that I don't agree with with. If your percent chance to win on the river is break even, you of course break even. The problems, however, are numerous.

First, it is nearly impossible to calculate the %chance you have the best hand down to a single digit degree. If you err on the side of calling every time, it only costs you one big bet every time you're wrong. If you err, however, on the side of folding it costs you 16 big bets, every time your wrong. Certainly you're going to be wrong in calling more often then your going to be wrong in folding, but not 16x more.

Second. Expected value depends greatly on repeatablility. Its a number blackjack players love, because the conditions are always repeatable. When deciding to call the flop w/ a flush draw the math is very simple, and the situation repeatable. On the river, however, too many variables affect the sitation for it ever to truly be "repeatable". This is a game of people, and people do weird stuff sometimes, like bet with bottom pair after a turn raise. The EP donk might not ever play this hand this way again, for a variety of reasons. I truly feel that in a lot of river decisions, the value of EV gets distorted a little bit (flame away)...

Third. You can't pay the bills with Sklansky bucks, and they don't help you sleep at night.

In conclusion, on the river, when its close as this hand clearly was, call. And don't feel bad about doing it.

lf

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the part of the new 2+2 mentality that I don't agree with with. If your percent chance to win on the river is break even, you of course break even. The problems, however, are numerous.

First, it is nearly impossible to calculate the %chance you have the best hand down to a single digit degree. If you err on the side of calling every time, it only costs you one big bet every time you're wrong. If you err, however, on the side of folding it costs you 16 big bets, every time your wrong. Certainly you're going to be wrong in calling more often then your going to be wrong in folding, but not 16x more.

Second. Expected value depends greatly on repeatablility. Its a number blackjack players love, because the conditions are always repeatable. When deciding to call the flop w/ a flush draw the math is very simple, and the situation repeatable. On the river, however, too many variables affect the sitation for it ever to truly be "repeatable". This is a game of people, and people do weird stuff sometimes, like bet with bottom pair after a turn raise. The EP donk might not ever play this hand this way again, for a variety of reasons. I truly feel that in a lot of river decisions, the value of EV gets distorted a little bit (flame away)...

Third. You can't pay the bills with Sklansky bucks, and they don't help you sleep at night.

In conclusion, on the river, when its close as this hand clearly was, call. And don't feel bad about doing it.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with what you have said, and it is my point. This was a scenario where I thought i was beat for CERTAIN. But I wasnt. Further, compared to the recent sentiment on this board, I generally have thought people's chance on the river are better than what is suggested. If folding in this hand can cost me a pot then some other scenarios where the concensus has been to fold a 16-1 pot have to be wrong.

Saving bets on the river is just not making up for this stuff....(and I am not talking about overcalling a raiser and a caller on a 4 flush board of some extreme like that which is an easy bet saved).

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
You MAY have a point, but your current sample size in this "we fold too much in big pots and we actually had the best hand"=1, and of course it is a self-selected sample.

Look, you lost. You folded a winner. Just because you folded a winner here doesn't mean you are ahead more than 7% of the time this happens. Heck, you could be behind 99% of the time in this situation, but guess what? 1% of the time, you'll still be folding the best hand. What can I say, weird stuff happens, don't look to make "big laydowns" for the sake of doing it, but just continue to think about your opponents, the hands they can have, the action, and the pot size when making your decision, don't decide that because you lost a big pot for 1 bet, you need to call every river bet because someone "might" be making a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have done none of what you are saying. First, I didnt consider this a big laydown at all - I thought it was an easy one (given the overcaller). Second, I have posted several times that I never fold to retards (BB in this scenario), and many people have replied that that is a bad policy. I catch these retarded plays all the time, it is not a sample size of 1 - I just almost never fold away a pot.

The point was, I thought this was an easy fold. Compared to the recent sentiment on this board, I tend toward favoring calling rivers more then the rest of posters, who advocate folding in situation where the % chance of winning was clearly greater than mine in this hand.

Obviously, 1 hand PROVES nothing. I was jsut using it as anecdotal evidence against a trend of recent post advice suggesting river folds.

As for this lost pot, it is difficult as a thinking player to combat a thinking player making what seems to me a non-thinking play (calling this river with A high). That is the play that led me to make my mistake, nothing the BB did.