problem with NL

[mr magoo]

200 NL
I have 150$ and villian got me coverd.
I sit on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], CO limps in, so do I. Pot 3,5BB
Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 checks, CO bets 7$, I raise to 30, everyone folds and CO moves all-in, what do I do??

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
200 NL
I have 150$ and villian got me coverd.
I sit on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], CO limps in, so do I. Pot 3,5BB
Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 checks, CO bets 7$, I raise to 30, everyone folds and CO moves all-in, what do I do??

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

[BirdieLongSocks]

Can someone explain the math behind this hand, I really need to learn it.

However I think its pretty close, leaning towards a fold.

[mcb]

The math is you are ~55% to make your hand. Call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Maulik]

count every out that makes you a straight & a flush. divide by the number of remain unseen cards & repeat for the turn. then you either multiply or add the two remaining numbers (you decide).

[Komodo]

Easiest call in history. You are 40-60 if he got QQ or AK of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. So you have the correct odds to call even if you can put him on exactly QQ.

[excession]

OK I've run the numbers.

He has 7 ways to be on a Ace high flush draw (assuming he would limp with any Axs pre-flop on the CO except for AK which he would have raised). AQ,AJ,AT and A9 are accounted for already. You are 40:60 dog to A8s and 45:55 dog to the others.

Let's again discount QQ as he would raise pre-flop. So he has 6 ways to hit set of 9's or 6's. If he has a set you are 42:58 dog.

Let's assign 10% to a big fat bluff - but you need to hit too and are probably only 60/40 vs that.

So overall you are a marginal dog - about 44/56 probably.

You are calling c$120 to win a $300 pot - trivial call I think..

[torsken]

If we make the assumption that he'll only play back at you like this with a set, then you have 42.1% equity in the pot.

a b c d

303$ * 0.390 - 118$ = 9.5$

a = total pot size if you call
b = your chance of winning the pot if you call
c = how much it cost you to call
d = net EV (call)

If he holds the worst case scenario holding Ah8h it would turn into a roughly zero EV call.

[subzero]

{First time using pokerstove, so please correct me if I did this wrong.}
Assign a range of hands to the villain and use pokerstove to figure out your chance of winning. Let's say he has a draw to the nut flush, a set, or two pair. I'm not including AK or QQ since he limped:

15,840 games 0.015 secs 1,056,000 games/sec
Board: Qh 9h 6d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.5581 % 44.56% 00.00% { JhTh }
Hand 2: 55.4419 % 55.44% 00.00% { 99, 66, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Qc9c, Qc6c, 9c6c }


So we're about a 1.2:1 underdog to the river. The pot is laying you 1.4:1 on your call. So a call is correct here.

[BZ_Zorro]

I was initially going to say clear fold, as you're behind most hands that would play like this (set, higher flush), and just ahead (55%) of one or two pair. Your pot odds are only 164:118, or 1.39:1. But I changed my mind after looking at how close it is. The two straight flush outs add a few percent in redraws against sets and greatly improve your odds against a higher flush.


Set:
Jh Th 42.12
6s 6c 57.88

Higher flush:
Jh Th 43.94
Ah 6h 56.06

Jh Th 39.90
Ah Kh 60.10 (unlikely with no pfr)

One pair:
Jh Th 56.77
As Qc 43.23

Jh Th 52.63
Ac Ah 47.37

Two pair
Jh Th 51.21
9s Qc 48.79

So I think this is a marginal call, given the action in this hand. It's +EV, but marginal because it's only a small +EV, and has very high variance. Personally I wouldn't call this against a decent player as a higher flush draw or set is almost certain.

If the hand was Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (i.e. OESFD but no straight flush outs), I don't think I'd call this.

Jh Th 35.15
Ah 9h 64.85

Jh Th 40.30
6c 6d 59.70

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