Stars $22 180 man MTT, heads up A7

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (2 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t127918)
Hero (t142082)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Button raises to t16000, Hero calls t8000.

Flop: (t24400) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t14000, Hero calls t14000.

Turn: (t52400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t20000, Hero calls t20000.

River: (t92400) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t45000, Hero ?.


I think my line could use some improvement. What line would you use? What do you put my opponent on?


Some background: This is exactly the 19th hand of heads up. He raised from sb to 18k on the 1st and 3rd hands of heads up (3/6k blinds). This was the first time, since then, that he had raised. Villain had only made multiple street bets once in our heads up history. I completed w/ 48o (3/6k blinds) from sb, on a 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board, flop: check, check, turn: bet 8k, call 8k, river: bet 14k, call 14k, Villain showed Q5o.

I'd probably fold this preflop against the villain you described.

[schwza]

i think your line is fine.

i would not fold pre-flop. villain has raised 2/9 small blinds - he's not only raising AA.

[betgo]

I push preflop, even if villain is tight. There is too much in the pot to flat call with this hand.

If I push preflop, I'll always be a significant dog if he calls. What's your line, assuming you only call preflop.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
If I push preflop, I'll always be a significant dog if he calls. What's your line, assuming you only call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necesarily true. He could call with KQ, 66, or A6 or something. HU, he could easily call with face cards or something. Anyway, if he doesn't call, you pick up the pot. If you are ahead, it is about the same EVwise whether or not he calls.

You are a 9-1 dog to AA, about a 7-3 dog to A8-AK and 88-KK, but how often can he get a hand like that HU. You are slightly behind 22-66 and somewhat ahead of anything else.

The pot is big. I don't see what's wrong with a semibluff push.

After taking out A7

Total Combos = 50*49/2 = 1225

77, AA = 3 combos
88-KK = 6 combos each
AK-A8 = 12 combos each
2*3 + 6*6 + 6*12 = 114

114/1225 ~ 9% of the time

[A_C_Slater]

You don't wanna push preflop if you can handle him postflop. Don't play big pots against inferior opponents. I insta-call river. You have top friggin pair HU. This is like having top two full ring. As far as the check/raise all in on turn, I don't think a worse hand is calling and only way behind hands are folding, same thing with river. If you call the river then you played it the same way I would.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
After taking out A7

Total Combos = 50*49/2 = 1225

77, AA = 3 combos
88-KK = 6 combos each
AK-A8 = 12 combos each
2*3 + 6*6 + 6*12 = 114

114/1225 ~ 9% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

So if he is raising 27% of the time, he has A7s dominated 7-3 about 1/3 of the time. The rest of the time you either are called ahead or slightly behind 22-66 or you pick up the pot.

Pushing is certainly chip EV+ compared to folding.

I would rather push, since you are OOP and you do not have an easy hand to play.

Call or Fold to river bet?