Chatting it Up

[Big_Jim]

First off, if he's ahead, he may not have the straight, he might have an overset. As a result, I will reduce your outs to 7.

I will use your assumption for when he's behind: 5 outs.

Pot: 27 + 45 + 193 = 265
To Call: 148

When ahead: Odds he improves: 41:5 = 8.2:1
When behind: Odds you improve: 39:7 = 6.8:1

Calling when Ahead = (-148 + 265*8.2)/9.2 = 220
Calling when Behind = (-148*5.8 + 265)/6.8 = -87

Let X = Number of times out of 100 you are ahead.

220X + ((100-X) * -87) = 0
220X + (-8700 + 87X) = 0
307X = 8700
X = 28

So, you've gotta be ahead 28% of the time.


Edit: FWIW, I don't think you're ahead that often.