JJ, full house on a double paired board, river play?

#1 11-22-2005, 11:17 PM

I don't have any reads on villian, nor stats. Sorry! What's my play on this river? Call, raise/call, what?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

hobbsmann · #2 11-22-2005, 11:32 PM

well you shouldn't be folding. The turn play by UTG+1 suggests a 3 rather than a K (possibly the unlikely KK or 33). So I'm wondering if anybody thinks there is any value in raising the river and folding to a 3-bet? Probably not, so call.

Richard Berg · #3 11-23-2005, 04:31 AM

Not even a basic inkling of loose vs tight? You should be able to tell within a couple hands whether he'd play a 3 from EP...

#4 11-23-2005, 04:37 AM

I would definitely call, but not raise. It is very likely that your are beaten, but I would want to be sure. A 3 or a K would beat you, so chances are low that you have the best hand. Without read it is difficult!

#5 11-23-2005, 07:39 AM

I think this is not really a case of way ahead/way behind. It is almost certain Villian has a three, not a king. I would raise the river and call a 3-bet. There is the remote possibility Villian has pocket 3's.

#6 11-23-2005, 08:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely call, but not raise. It is very likely that your are beaten, but I would want to be sure. A 3 or a K would beat you, so chances are low that you have the best hand. Without read it is difficult!

[/ QUOTE ]

A 3 does not beat him

mtdoak · #7 11-23-2005, 10:50 AM

I don't think he;s JUST overplaying a King here. Chances are he has something like A3. I raise and call a 3 bet. His least likely hand is KK, followed closely by KJ, then K3. With no reads you really can't establish a range of hands. However, unless he's a total moron, your ahead more than 60% of the time.

mtdoak · #8 11-23-2005, 10:51 AM

The pot has grown to big for you to make an 'expert laydown', esp vs an unknown. Your heads more than 60% of the time here, IMHO. Raise and call.

MisterKing · #9 11-23-2005, 11:17 AM

Think about this hand street by street. I think it helps you understand that you are ahead a SIGNIFICANT percentage of the time. Preflop he limps. That's not KK very often, particularly when he fails to pull the limp-reraise after you pop it. What do you see limped in EP often? Small sooted aces, sooted connectors, etc.

On the flop, your hand looks great. Of course, there are diamond flush draws out there to be aware of. The betting indicates either a slowplayed 3, medium pocket pairs (e.g. 55), a very weak king (~K6s?), AK, maaaybe KJ, even more remotely 33, or (as mentioned) flush draws. A real outlier would be AA -- but you really don't see this often. Same with KK.

On the turn, you can narrow things down a little from above. The medium pocket pairs are no longer an issue, nor are the weak kings since only a total maniac would cap those. You're now focused on (in order) sooted 3's like 53s, A3, AK, KJ, I doubt KK, and once in a blue moon 33. AA now seems like more of a possibility than on the flop, albeit still a remote one.

On the river, he's got a boat 99% of the time. The other 1% has has AA -- a small enough % to discount entirely for the purposes of our thought process. There's 1 way to make KK, 1 way to make 33, 2 ways to make KJ, 8 ways to make A3, 24 ways to make 63s-43s, and 8 ways to make AK. That's pretty much the range. You beat 32 of those combos, and lose to 12. Now, since we have no reads I guess we'd have to perhaps discount some of the 63s type hands, but still if you cut them down from 24 ways to 12 (e.g. making them 50% less likely), you still have a 20-12 advantage.

And because you have that advantage, you need to raise and reluctantly call a 3-bet. My point is, if you take the range that seems most likely pre-flop, and narrow it/refine it through each street, I think your river action becomes pretty clear.

hobbsmann · #10 11-23-2005, 12:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The pot has grown to big for you to make an 'expert laydown', esp vs an unknown. Your heads more than 60% of the time here, IMHO. Raise and call.

[/ QUOTE ]
folding to a 3-bet on that board is not an expert laydown, it is standard. If you are not comfortable folding to a 3-bet than you shouldn't raise the river to begin with.