What percent of the time can a turn checkraiser beat TPTK?

I am not asking about every turn checkraise here, but rather the type that gives me the most trouble. Specifically, one when:

1. The villain did not show aggression on the flop.
2. The villain is a decent but not great player – maybe postflop aggression of about 1.5.
3. The turn card was not an overcard to the flop (in which case a checkraise with TPTK becomes much more likely).
4. The game is shorthanded (I play 6-max).

My guess is that the checkraiser in this situation can beat TPTK a significant majority of the time, maybe 75%. I would guess that the villain has TPTK another 10% of the time and is bluffing or has a random holding about 15% of the time. So I would estimate my pot equity with TPTK in this situation to be about 20%. This may be too low, because for example if the villain has two low pair, you have a lot of outs to improve, but the villain will often have outs when he is bluffing also. In general, does the 75% figure sound about right to people? The 20% equity figure?

If so, I get the following implication. When you call a checkraise on the turn, you will generally have to call another bet on the river to see a showdown. So you are committing two bets to a pot in which you have 20% equity. For calling to be EV neutral, the pot must be 7 big bets immediately after the checkraise, because you can count the villain’s expected river bet and your two calls in the final pot you stand to win.

Lately I have been folding my TPTK to turn checkraises a lot, and I worry that it is encouraging people to take shots at me. But I think if I use the 7 big bets rule of thumb, and I look for additional reasons to call such as gutshot straight draws etc., I will be calling enough of the time to keep people honest.

Does this seem like a decent strategy to people? Does anyone have any tips or insights on when a checkraise is more or less likely to be a bluff than usual?

Thanks!

[TomBrooks]

It depends on the texture of the board, the number of people still in the hand, and how aggressive or passive your opponent is amongst other things. That being said, I'd guess 75 is the minimum percentage of the time a turn checkraiser can beat TPTK. On a board of unconnected rainbow rags with one Ace, King or Queen, that checkraise percentage might include TPTK.

I'd guess slightly more than 80% is closer to the correct figure. Say about 82.9% That's 4 out of 5 times rather than 3 out of 4 times.

I'd like to get a better feel for how big the pot should be versus how many outs we have after you factor in the 20% of the time we're still ahead with top pair. I haven't figured that out yet.

So how often do you call down? Or do you always fold? My problem is that I think folding is almost always +EV the first time someone checkraises you (in this situation), but I feel like some people then get it in their heads that they can try it again with impunity. And they're usually right...

I tend to agree that 75% is the minimum. I was originally thinking 80, but last night I played some hands that made me reassess.

[deception5]

Unless the opponent is passive I would usually call down with TPTK. This is a very strong hand in 6-max and there are a few reasons to call down.

1.) Your opponent could be check/raising you with tpwk + a draw that he picked up on the turn.
2.) Your opponent could be check/raising with a worse hand like tp2k or worse.
3.) Your opponent has seen you fold to a lot of turn check/raises.
4.) You may have 5 outs or more against a 2-pair hand.
5.) Your opponent did not raise preflop so an overpair is less likely.
6.) You are getting about 4:1 on a calldown so you need to have or improve to the best hand 20% of the time.

Edit: I am assuming it is heads up postflop.

[Redd]

There was a post in SS about this very subject a while back (I think it was deranged or baronzeus?) - would anyone happen to have a link? IIRC he found it was something like 70% of the time he's turn c/red with similar conditions, he lost.

Redd,

I can't find the link so far, but I will keep looking. In any case though, it seems like having 30% equity vs. 20% equity makes a pretty big difference. Running my original calculation with a 30% equity figure gives me that calling down is +EV if the pot is 4 big bets immediately after the checkraise, which by definition it must be.

This seems to support d5's contention that it is usually worth calling down here.

[Redd]

I agree that more often than not, it's worth calling down.