$215: Interesting use of the min. bet

[microbet]

How many players out of 100 would bet 15 into a 400 pot under any of those circumstances?

Why is a set any different than AJ?

[citanul]

depends what villains hand actually is.

the point is that by just calling, you don't make bad hands go away, in fact you inspire them to take another shot on the river. meanwhile good hands would cost your more money or force you to fold when you could have come cheap or seen a cheap card with some outs, etc.

the tactic is to make sure that on the river, when there's no more cards to come, your opponent bluffs, as well as value bets. if you raise the turn, you're not going to have many bluffs sent your way on the river.

the only hand that it sucks for the opponent to have is a reasonable draw, as you could be giving him basically a free card on his tiny blocking bet. this happens. you put him on a range and go from there.

citanul

[citanul]

a set is way stronger than aj...

(as in when villain has a set, he knows that basically no matter what hero has, he's unlikely to have many outs to beat him.)

citanul

[microbet]

Right. If, people bluff more often by betting on the river there, than they do by check/raising the turn, you will have a more profitable call (the times they beat you with the free card will weigh against this - but the Irie/Unarmed thesis is that it doesn't outweigh it)

[microbet]

Right, but the flush is what is threatening - though less so when a few of the flush cards would give you a full house.

[awr000]

What would you consider a reasonable draw here?

[citanul]

well, you play poker, so does your opponent.

you're going to call on a flush river for a bet of some maximum size x
you're going to fold on a flush river for a bet over that amount x
your opponent is going to have the flush some percentage of the time y
your opponent is going to bet without the flush on the flush river some other percentage z
your opponent is going to bet some non flush card rivers with hands you beat that don't have a flush draw to them some amount of the time a
your opponent is going to bet some non flush card rivers with hands hands that beat you that don't have a flush draw to them some amount of the time b
your opponent is going to bet the non flush card river with flush cards that you beat some amount of time c

then you set up a bit sort of matrix based on how often you think he has each of those things, and seek to win the most / lose the least.

your hand has some value to it, having top pair. seeing a showdown isn't a crime. seeing the showdown and having your opponent be bluffing some good fraction of the time, instead of purely value betting, is very good too.

raising on the turn costs chips. those chips could otherwise be used to call a river bet you might have to call on the end anyway, or they could be chips you're just making yourself fold to a turn reraise. while the percentage of the time your chips goes in and gets called on a turn raise and your hand is good is low, the chance that he bluffs into you on the river is significantly higher.

citanul

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


you're going to call on a flush river for a bet of some maximum size x
you're going to fold on a flush river for a bet over that amount x


citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your line of reasoning and explanation with one small exception:

There are many times when I would call a bet up to size x, and fold to a bigger bet... but call a push. That distorts that relationship significantly, and provides even more incentive to induce a river bluff.

Irieguy

[SlackerMcFly]

Villain probably has pocket 8's. The lead on the flop was to define his hand, got called by (surely) a J.

I briefly considered Ah5h, but don't think that he would lead out from MP with a raise on that hand.

Now behind in the hand, min-bets the turn with his 8's to see if J will push, or get a real cheap card.

River is Bingo for Villain (8's) or the made hand with Ah5h from the turn. How much can he extract from Hero w/out scaring him off the pair of J's? t250 seemed to be the right amount...

But I play Omaha HL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Shalacka

[microbet]

Ok, that post made my eyeballs spin and I have to drive home. I'll read more carefully later, but, does any of that mean he's more likely to bet 15 on the turn with a set than with AJ?