A series of 10/20 hands against the same villain....(long)

[cero_z]

Hi AZK,

I assume you realize that you never told us what Villain had in any hand, though it appears as though you lost them all. It might help to know what kinds of hands he's played previously.

Incidentally, don't infer from the lack of replies that the post was boring. Sometimes good threads take a while to get going. I love posts like this, because now we're playing poker!

Generally, these hands look OK individually (except hand 2, which is ugly), but as a series, I think you were pressing against this guy, probably for the reason you mentioned. However, it depends on what he was showing down; if he showed you an overpair in hand 1, well, that would be different than if he showed you KTo, in which case your looseness and aggression in later hands would be more warranted.

Hand 1: OK, though I'd bet more or much less on the river if I bet (and I usually wouldn't when he checks behind on the turn). This is because his flop bet seems to mean an overpair or AK. It's hard to get called for 600 by AK, and hard to get a fold from an overpair. I'd tend to make the small value bet IF I bet at all, because I think it'd be pretty hard to move the overpair regardless after he invites you to bluff by checking the turn.

In Hand #2, the river is bad. Your lead bet should win on the turn. If it doesn't, I'm check-folding to a bet of 300 in a pot where he could have anything and hasn't bet that much relative to the pot size on the end. Maybe leading for 120 and folding to a raise is a better line. As for the first 3 streets: I think given the pre-flop min-raise, KQo is plenty good to take a flop with. The flop call isn't too good, though, because you need to have reason to believe he has a very good hand to go for the gut-shot.

Hand 3: If you feel a move is coming, you probably ought to sack up and bet out, and be prepared to play a big pot. I know this is one of those spots where getting raised really sucks, but you have the read--don't ignore it. Checking the flop will tend to shut their bluffing frequency down a bit anyway, because most pf raisers will not give up the lead heads up on this flop unless they flop big. As you played it, UGH--tough board. I like your bet on the turn, though I'd bet less. Your flop check brought a scary card and encouraged him to make a move; this could really work in your favor if you make the nuts on the river. That's why I like your bet; you want to get raised a callable amount and then back off, so he feels you have a pair-type hand, and may make a big move to represent the flush if it hits (or may not fear it and lose a lot if he holds a straight). If he also makes a flush you're in fat city, of course. River is ugly, and I'd tend to fold, though calling is defensible. I'd just say to myself, "I'm probably behind about 2 out of 3 times here, so it's close. I did get a nice shot at winning a big pot; I'm going to cut my losses and chalk up a moral victory, rather than pay off 500 just because I have TPTK." Remember, you made a strange check on the flop; he can put you on a set or overpair here, so his two barrells probably mean something good.

Hand #4 is questionable, but all right. If he puts another dime in the pot after I bet 400, I'm done with the hand (I check-call a reasonable bet if I hit an Ace or K). Again, in a sequence where somebody keeps beating you and you keep tangling, you usually have to show them a hand. "Small" bluffs like 400 or 600 don't work as well as they normally might.

Anyway, I'll say again that I like this post, and I hope people post some like it. Time consuming, but exponentially more food for thought.

[cero_z]

LOL. When I read this post, there were 2 replies. When I was done with my reply, there were 2 PAGES of replies.

Also,
[ QUOTE ]
I'm more likely to play something like this than KJo, so I'm not a total donk, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
--Not total , no. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AZK]

Fair enough, I guess I'll post results to sort of help the conversation get going...

Hand 1: Pretty obvious, I thought, some people lay down one pair on that board, so I bet, He hesitated, thought, called with AA and I lost.

Hand 2: He showed 78, or something right around there and I won. This is pretty much what I put him on, or something to this extent. Drinks all around if we both hit that jack, huh?

Hand 3: He showed 55. Yuck. I'm beginning to realize how big of a calling station I am. Sometimes it looks like the most brilliant stuff, other times I look like a total fish. Still trying to work on this.

Hand 4: He folded. He does the same minraise, but it's on the flop, the board is totally rainbow, and he has no reason to believe i have a big hand, so I don't think this is a set, I think it's a move (be it a pocket pair or top pair with a sc), hence my attempt at restealing on the turn. I suppose I could try and resteal on the flop. But in terms of shania, I rarely 3bet flops, so this would look weird.


As for your comments:

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: OK, though I'd bet more or much less on the river if I bet (and I usually wouldn't when he checks behind on the turn). This is because his flop bet seems to mean an overpair or AK. It's hard to get called for 600 by AK, and hard to get a fold from an overpair. I'd tend to make the small value bet IF I bet at all, because I think it'd be pretty hard to move the overpair regardless after he invites you to bluff by checking the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So bet 200 when I think he has AK and bet pot or more (800-1000) when I think he has AA? hmmm....I don't know what I think about this...He won't call with AK regardless, so you should bet as if he has an overpair everytime, right? Either he mucks AK (whatever), or he more likely had an overpair. I give him credit for an overpair because there are 3 callers adn we are deep. I don't think he'd bet AK on this flop.


Hand 2

[ QUOTE ]
the river is bad. Your lead bet should win on the turn. If it doesn't, I'm check-folding to a bet of 300 in a pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the river was fantastic, but this could just be one of those "in the moment" things. I don't think he has an ace here, I think my Queen is good here, so I check to induce him to bluff a missed draw/lower one pair type hand. You really don't like this? Maybe I'm being results oriented...

Hand 3: [ QUOTE ]
Hand 3: If you feel a move is coming, you probably ought to sack up and bet out, and be prepared to play a big pot. I know this is one of those spots where getting raised really sucks, but you have the read--don't ignore it. Checking the flop will tend to shut their bluffing frequency down a bit anyway, because most pf raisers will not give up the lead heads up on this flop unless they flop big. As you played it, UGH--tough board. I like your bet on the turn, though I'd bet less.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is very interesting and very smart. You are right, I should have led even if I felt the raise coming. The whole bet less cause it looks like you have a monster anyway idea is brilliant, cause I don't check very often when I'm the pfr and it's headsup/3way. The whole he is less likely to bluff makes a lot of sense and is why I need to give him credit for something solid when he minraises turn. I should have thought of this. It's amazing how much more you realize after you played the hand. I'm representing a monster if I check and then lead turn, so for him to reraise, he has to have a big hand. Brilliant. This river call is an example of the calling station in me and how fishy it looks sometimes.

[Maier]

I just have a question AZK, What are you trying to achieve here with the KQo hand on the turn? Wouldnt it be better to check/fold or check bet river if he checks behind? I just dont see what you're trying to make him fold here.

I'm not sure if hes releasing an A or T in this spot and y ou're nowhere near pricing yourself in. So, Whats the point?

[AZK]

I don't think he has an Ace, I think he was just trying to steal on the flop, I don't think he could stand the heat with a Ten. I want him to fold. When I hit my hand on the river (if you can even call it that), I don't want to bet because he will probably only call with a hand that beats me, but he will bet a ton of hands I beat/beat me...

Edit: Oh yeah, this may sound dumb, but a good part of me also thought K high on the turn is good here, but he is drawing very live so I'm betting.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 4, it doesn't seem like this guy is making any laydowns. Why keep hammering at him with nothing, no draw? He's got to have you pegged as a bluffer at this point, so he'll call down with a lot of crap here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has me pegged as a flop better. I have an aggressive image but not a crazy bluffing image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, all I know is that when I've tried moves like this after someone has started calling me down, they don't work.

I mean, let's think about his thought process WRT you:

"Boy, AZK is a bluffing maniac, he bets a lot with nothing, he'll fire multiple bullets with no hand. I'm going to let him hang himself and check/raise a lot with my hands." Against this guy, you're going to need the goods, and he's calling you down.

vs. "Boy, creed_of_hubris is a weak/tight nit, I'm going to check/raise a lot and push him off his hands." Against this guy, I like your move, and I've been trying it more often against this sort of player with mixed results. It's certainly a variance-increaser. But -- that's not the situation you are in.

So I think the check/raises are not bluffs, but are pits that you keep falling into.

[AZK]

Very valid points, I don't knwo if it matters, but fishy has position in hand 4, it isn't a check-minraise, just a minraise, does that change your opinion at all of that hand?

[creedofhubris]

With an offsuit one-gapper you're going to see a flop that you like (OESD, 2p or better) less than 10% of the time. AND you're playing a drawing hand out of position. I already don't like suited connectors from the blinds into a raise because of the positional problem; this compounds the problem by being much less likely to flop something with potential in the first place.

But I know a lot of the posters who play the big games disagree with me about this.