throw crappy top pair away?

thesharpie · #1 03-03-2005, 06:03 AM

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB calls, Hero folds.

River: (8 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, SB folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB

This was my first hand at Pacific, I played it a little off. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Is it worth check calling this on the flop if UTG bets, a couple of people call, and I close the betting with about 10SB in the pot?

einbert · #2 03-03-2005, 06:10 AM

A 6 probably gives you the best hand, a 2 almost definitely gives you the best hand.

I'll give you 5.5 outs, so you need 7.4-1 to call. You're getting 8-1 so you should have called.

Mark it all the way down to 5 outs and you need 8.2-1 to call. Still a good call considering you're closing the action and your implied odds are fairly decent.

thesharpie · #3 03-03-2005, 06:15 AM

I didn't even consider calling on the turn. I guess the turn fold was a worse play than the flop bet even. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Edit: Is it worth discounting the outs a little more in case the pot gets split if I hit the deuce? I know it's unlikely that someone would call 2 bets on the flop with a 1 card low end OESD, but this is micro limit... If I do discount the outs a little, I think it's a fold on the turn.

milesdyson · #4 03-03-2005, 06:21 AM

Hmm. Interesting hand.

You have the weak side of the OESD, a BDFD, and top pair. This is definitely worth a flop bet. It sucks that UTG raised here, but so be it. I strongly doubt that UTG has 87 for the flopped nut straight, because he would have slow-played it for sure.

On the turn, you're closing the action getting 8:1. Here is how I'm counting our outs here:

4 outs for 2s
1 out for 7s
.5 outs for 6s
.5 outs for 3s

I'm thinking we have about 6 outs here, and this is probably a little conservative.

45/6 = 7.5

The turn is a call.

TwoShedsJackson · #5 03-03-2005, 06:23 AM

Let's see your outs: 2 6's, 4 2's, rate the 4 7's at about an out as you could lose to someone with an 8, backdoor draw to a low flush, call that an out (being generous). The 3's for two pair are really worth next to nothing as there'll be four to a straight on board then. You need to be wary of straight draws on this board, obviously, I rate the whole thing at about six outs.

I check/call the flop, someone with overcards, A7, A6 or someone with two pair will bet, giving you odds to draw by the time it gets back to you. You probably need to hit something bigger to win the pot so I wouldn't be concerned about thinning the field yet.

Overcard,new diamond flush draw and no spade devalues your hand a bit on the turn, but you still have six outs to a probable winning hand and you're getting 8 to 1 closing the action, I call here.

einbert · #6 03-03-2005, 06:57 AM

Yeah but I didn't even account for the times you hit a 7 and take down the whole pot. You should probably give about 1 out to the 7's, so you definitely have to call this.

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 03-03-2005, 07:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm. Interesting hand.

You have the weak side of the OESD, a BDFD, and top pair. This is definitely worth a flop bet. It sucks that UTG raised here, but so be it. I strongly doubt that UTG has 87 for the flopped nut straight, because he would have slow-played it for sure.

On the turn, you're closing the action getting 8:1. Here is how I'm counting our outs here:

4 outs for 2s
1 out for 7s
.5 outs for 6s
.5 outs for 3s

I'm thinking we have about 6 outs here, and this is probably a little conservative.

45/6 = 7.5

The turn is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

cowboyzfan · #8 03-03-2005, 07:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

45/6 = 7.5

The turn is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not commenting on the hand but wouldn't 6 outs on the turn be 40 to 6 or 6.7 to 1?

moot · #9 03-03-2005, 08:06 AM

Yes, it would be.

milesdyson · #10 03-03-2005, 08:21 AM

I meant 46/6 = 7.67.

Yes, you're correct about the odds of us hitting one of our outs being 40:6, as in 40 cards are not "out" cards and 6 are.

The number 7.67 represents how large the pot would get if we made a break-even call. So, it includes our call (ie. 7.7 = 6.7 + 1) because 6/46 is the actual probability of us hitting our card. It's just my way of thinking, but we get to the same result. The bottom line is that 9 > 7.67 or 8 > 6.67. It means the same thing.