Post-Skins Party 30-60

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
bigbab is running sickly lately.... i cant figure out why that guy hates money so much.

[/ QUOTE ]


he is my #1 donator. thanks big babs [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[MNpoker]

OK I play 15/30 but I also am on the worst downswing I've seen since the switch.

- Almost 200 BB in the las tweek.

This is after winning 400 Big bets last month

Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year)

Empire:
45,319 hands +$42,912
Party Poker
5,071 hands -$8,775

WOW

[mc1023]

[ QUOTE ]
Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year)

Empire:
45,319 hands +$42,912
Party Poker
5,071 hands -$8,775

WOW

[/ QUOTE ]
um losing 9k over 5000 hands is really meaningless..

its all thanks to our good friend called variance

[elmo]

I had a big downswing when party cut back on the 30/60 tables. I still am not certain if I was beating that new game. I'd wait for 50k hands before making any determination.

[MNpoker]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Can these numbers even be possible? (This is all hands this year)

Empire:
45,319 hands +$42,912
Party Poker
5,071 hands -$8,775

WOW

[/ QUOTE ]
um losing 9k over 5000 hands is really meaningless..

its all thanks to our good friend called variance

[/ QUOTE ]

At what point is it meaningfull then?

If that's meaningless how can you say 'anyone' in a good or bad player. Especially in the pre-internet days. Any measurement for your variance?

I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics)

OK I get 3.28% chance of this. Impossible to run this bad? No. Coincidental that it happened at the EXACT same time Party got rid of skins? I don't know.
Meaningless - I don't think so.

[elmo]

3.28% is alot when you are repeating an action over and over

[Leaky Eye]

[ QUOTE ]
I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics)

OK I get 3.28% chance of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You only have 45k hands to determine you are a 2.9/100 player? I would guess you were running good, and actually win less. The chances of your downswing will probably later prove to have been considerably higher.

[MNpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I show I'm a 2.9 BB / 100 with a Variance of 3.54 per hand. (Based on sound statistics)

OK I get 3.28% chance of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You only have 45k hands to determine you are a 2.9/100 player? I would guess you were running good, and actually win less. The chances of your downswing will probably later prove to have been considerably higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you assume that?

I see alot of people here talk about stats. Just curious what the backup is for that?
(i.e. any statistical reasoning or just 'gut' feeling)

I should add I can tell when AA is getting cracked by runner runner over and over again that I am running bad.

[tonysoldier]

Here's a little worthless anecdotal evidence, but it should demonstrate a point.

First 50K+ hands at 20/40 and 30/60, 3.7bb/100. Next 17K hands -1.5bb/100.

VARIANCE, never underestimate, never.

[Leaky Eye]

Why would I assume which part?