Minn @ GB - Page 2

judgesmails · #11 11-14-2005, 07:53 PM

I am not saying Green Bay is a good team or anything, or even that I would bet them this week laying over 3. But consider the following stats with this team. I will be looking to play them when they are getting points later in the year.

First downs: GBP 182 Opp 164
3rd down %: GBP 45.3 Opp 37.8
Ave net yds/game: GBP 326 Opp 299
Yds per play: GBP 5.1 Opp 4.9
Touchdowns: GBP 24 Opp 21
Points: GBP 201 Opp 184

Of course their turnover margin is poor, and the reason their record is so bad. But the backbone statistics of actual team performance suggest this team is not really that bad.

Their defense is ranked #10 in the league despite worknig on short fields all year because of the turnover problems. The offense has struggled because they can't run at all. They plugged in a new guard last week and the other guard is starting to play better. If they can continue to run like they did vs. Atlanta - we could make some money playing this team getting points the second half of the season.

#12 11-14-2005, 08:09 PM

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Of course their turnover margin is poor, and the reason their record is so bad. But the backbone statistics of actual team performance suggest this team is not really that bad.

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I have seen these stats as well but if you take out the NO game some of these wouldn't be nearly as impressive. Take out the best performance and the worst performance and then lets see the stats.

judgesmails · #13 11-14-2005, 09:08 PM

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I have seen these stats as well but if you take out the NO game some of these wouldn't be nearly as impressive.

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I am not saying this is an impressive team. Just suggesting they may be underrated in future lines and there may be some opportunities to bet them when they get points.

They have lost by:

14
2
1
3
3
7
10

If their kicker makes a couple they are 4-5.

If you throw out the NO (best) and the Detroit (worst) game the stats, other than points for and against, do not skew dramatically.

They are still outgaining their opponents.

#14 11-14-2005, 09:18 PM

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Of course +3.5 +101 and +4 -110 are pretty much the same line.

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Really? +3.5 +101 looks more appealing to me. I'm really not an expert sports better by any means, so I could be wrong, but I would rather take that line than +4 -110.

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You are probably right. Going from the 3.5 to 4 is probably worth about 6-7 cents. So, the "same line" would be +3.5 +101 and +4 -105. Somebody with better math than me would be able to tell me how many cents this is worth.

craig

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+3.5 +101 is much better.

kdog · #15 11-14-2005, 10:49 PM

For me this game is impossible to handicap. Neither team shows any consistency. One week they do everything wrong, the next week everything's right. I can envision anything from a 1 point last second win to a 4 touchdown blowout. With either team winning or losing that way.

I know it's the Monday night game and it's nice to have some action on that but I think I can find better games to bet my money on.

Daliman · #16 11-14-2005, 11:45 PM

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home team gives 3 points

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3.5 points. big difference.

craig

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Well, from a "getting 3 points vs. 3.5 points" it is, but from a standard swing, it's not, unless it is on a strike point. If neutral ground the home team is a 3 point dog, them being a .5 point fave in same game at home, would make almost no difference vs a pick, (of course, .5 is not usually posted, but just given for effect.

craig r · #17 11-14-2005, 11:52 PM

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home team gives 3 points

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3.5 points. big difference.

craig

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Well, from a "getting 3 points vs. 3.5 points" it is, but from a standard swing, it's not, unless it is on a strike point. If neutral ground the home team is a 3 point dog, them being a .5 point fave in same game at home, would make almost no difference vs a pick, (of course, .5 is not usually posted, but just given for effect.

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I apologize, but I don't understand what you are saying. My point was that with +3, getting the hook (either way) could be a big enough factor in deciding which side you would take. I wouldn't use it as a sole deciding factor, but if I was leaning towards GB and saw +3.5, instead of 3, my lean would then become a "play". Especially if it was +3 -110 and +3.5 -120-125.

craig

Daliman · #18 11-15-2005, 03:46 AM

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home team gives 3 points

[/ QUOTE ]

3.5 points. big difference.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, from a "getting 3 points vs. 3.5 points" it is, but from a standard swing, it's not, unless it is on a strike point. If neutral ground the home team is a 3 point dog, them being a .5 point fave in same game at home, would make almost no difference vs a pick, (of course, .5 is not usually posted, but just given for effect.

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I apologize, but I don't understand what you are saying. My point was that with +3, getting the hook (either way) could be a big enough factor in deciding which side you would take. I wouldn't use it as a sole deciding factor, but if I was leaning towards GB and saw +3.5, instead of 3, my lean would then become a "play". Especially if it was +3 -110 and +3.5 -120-125.

craig

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What I'm saying, which I believe was the OP's point, is that being the home team is generally worth 3 points in your direction, whether that or 3.5 put you on an exceptionally better number is based on the static team differential. Essentially, the OP was making an obvious point.

craig r · #19 11-15-2005, 03:53 AM

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home team gives 3 points

[/ QUOTE ]

3.5 points. big difference.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, from a "getting 3 points vs. 3.5 points" it is, but from a standard swing, it's not, unless it is on a strike point. If neutral ground the home team is a 3 point dog, them being a .5 point fave in same game at home, would make almost no difference vs a pick, (of course, .5 is not usually posted, but just given for effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize, but I don't understand what you are saying. My point was that with +3, getting the hook (either way) could be a big enough factor in deciding which side you would take. I wouldn't use it as a sole deciding factor, but if I was leaning towards GB and saw +3.5, instead of 3, my lean would then become a "play". Especially if it was +3 -110 and +3.5 -120-125.

craig

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What I'm saying, which I believe was the OP's point, is that being the home team is generally worth 3 points in your direction, whether that or 3.5 put you on an exceptionally better number is based on the static team differential. Essentially, the OP was making an obvious point.

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Ahhh, okay, I get what you are saying now.

craig