Simulators do not make sense or I am going NUTS 50/100 LIMIT - Page 2

DcifrThs · #11 10-19-2005, 11:58 PM

not simulators.

math.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289819
pokenum -h qc 9s - 7d 5d -- 5s 6s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 5s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s Qc 433 43.74 538 54.34 19 1.92 0.447
7d 5d 538 54.34 433 43.74 19 1.92 0.553

your win % is 43.74%

Barron

elindauer · #12 10-20-2005, 01:00 AM

Welcome to the forum rookie. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You have 9 spades, 3 8s (you've already counted the 8s), and random runner two pairs as outs. However, he has a 4 out redraw no matter which of these you catch, which is enough to give him the advantage.

good luck.
eric

Josh W · #13 10-20-2005, 01:21 AM

To summarize what others have said, as well as trying to play to your theories...

You have 12 outs, not 13.

12 x 4 = 48%.

However, if you get there on one of the streets, your opponent can get there on the other street. i.e. turn a flush, river a fullhouse. He has 4 outs.

4 x 4/2 (because only one street) = 8% that he redraws.

8% of the 48% is about 4%. So, you actually win 48% - 4% of the time, or about 44% of the time.

I hope that makes sense.

Josh

#14 10-20-2005, 01:49 AM

You arent drawing to the nuts while he is so if he catches on the turn you have 0 outs.

So ~8% of the time you are drawing dead on the river.

Your one card straight draw isnt that flash either because he has additional outs he can catch a 9.

#15 10-20-2005, 05:30 AM

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how did you calculate that 43? I thought it was 52... 13 outs x 4 = 52 percent

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This is correct. It is only 43% in 30/60

Lori

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It's 57.3% in 15/30 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

bleu329 · #16 10-20-2005, 07:02 AM

what site is this again? it greatly affects your flush chances!

AlcateL · #17 10-20-2005, 07:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what site is this again? it greatly affects your flush chances!

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LOL [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

He has outs to a house which means even though you're going to be ahead assuming he doesn't improve like 52% of the time he can still improve.

phish · #18 10-20-2005, 09:49 AM

I don't understand this multiplying by 4 business. Is it some kind of rough rule of thumb?

flawless_victory · #19 10-20-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this multiplying by 4 business. Is it some kind of rough rule of thumb?

[/ QUOTE ]yes.

MaxPower · #20 10-20-2005, 10:01 AM

The confusion you are having is that you are trying to compute the probability of making the hand that you are drawing to. That is not the same thing as your probability of winning the hand - which is what the simulator gives you.

As everyone has already pointed out the probability of you winning the hand is less than the probability of hitting your draw, because you opponent can improve to a full house even if you make your draw.