Continuation Betting

[Big_Jim]

Not sure if this is the right forum for this. X-Posted in Small Stakes.

A couple things to consider when making continuation bets:

When on a stone bluff continuation bet, i.e. SC that completely whiffed the flop, a pot sized continuation bet needs to work 50% of the time to show immediate profit. If the bet is any smaller, it needs to work proportionally less of the time to show immediate profit. I actually kept track of my continuation bets, and in my (admittedly small) sample size of about 100 continuation bets it worked 63 times.

Frequently, you will have a draw or some piece of the flop, giving you outs to improve. For example, if you have a flush draw, you're going to improve on the turn 1 time in 5, so the bluff only needs to fold them 40% of the time, to show immediate profit. Not to mention that betting the flop will frequently allow you to take a free card on the turn.

Sometimes, you'll actually have a hand. Once thinking players notice that you are betting 80% of the flops after you raise PF, they will take your flop bets less seriously, which will help you get a big pot when you actually have the goods.
The texture of the flop affects how likely it is that an opponent actually has a hand. Typically, an A high flop with no draws is a good continuation bet flop, same as K or Q high. Low flops are also good, as people will not frequently chase with overcards. Furthermore, drawless flops make it much more likely that you are up against a made hand, instead of a draw. Other good flops for continuation bets are very scary flops, like a monotone board or 3 straight.

Lastly, table image is very important with continuation betting. If you are running badly, people will be less likely to believe you, and may come over the top of you, knowing that you are likely getting frustrated. When you are running hot, be more willing to continuation bet, especially if you are playing with tricky, thinking players. Furthermore, be more willing to make continuation bets against ABC players or weak-tight players than LAGs.

If you feel like you are getting picked off too often, consider lowering the frequency of your continuation bets, as this will cause them to be taken more seriously.