Telling the difference between bad play or a downswing?

[bdmcgraw]

Before anyone hounds me about the sample size, I'll admit its only 3.5k hands. However, I am down $140 dollars at $1-2 6max at Party, about -2BB/100.

How can I tell if I'm running bad or playing bad? As of this point KK is -$20 with a winrate of 45%. AKs is also at -$20 with a winrate of 50%. PP10's are -$4 with a winrate of 52%.

Am I just getting sucked out on more than usual, or am I overplaying 10s, Aks, etc? I don't really think it's possible to overplay KK in 6max as almost every post people want a showndown with it barring lots of passive players and an ace on the board.

I'm going to keep playing to make sure, but at net loss at this point is frustrating to say the least, and I don't want to start questioning every move I make. I've been a winning full ring player and a low limit SNG winner.

Not that any of you care about stats at this point, but mine are relatively normal I think but posting to make sure.

VPIP: 22%
VPfromSB:44%
Folded SB to steal: 79%
Folded BB to steal: 56%
Att to steal: 17%
Amount Won: -141.72
BB/100 Hands: -1.94
Went to SD: 35%
Won%atSD: 48%
PF Raise: 10%

What do you guys do with QJo, K10o, 22-55, KJo, Q10o when you're UTG? I fold all of them UTG, raising if they are suited, and raising 66-AA.

Flop Aggression: 2.89
Turn Aggression: 2.91
River Aggression: 1.47
Total: 2.45

That way too aggressive? I think I overplay AK, AQ, AJ to an extent postflop, I always read here about people often wanting to showdown ace high but I hate showing down ace high in $1-2 as I rarely win with it..

That is all at PartyPoker...

Then my crypto stats (obviously only 750 hands, don't be mad, but im up over $250 at 1-26max with stats that are almost the same)



Is this me running well at Cryptologic and running bad at Party? Can someone assure me that if I play 17000 more hands I will probably be in the green? The game doesn't seem hard to me at all but results are results.

Thanks
confused and lost player [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[brettbrettr]

A cursory glance tells me you need to raise pre-flop more AND seek advice in the HUSH forums. 70 BB's is nada. 6 max is very swingy.

[digdeep]

In my experience, I have had bad runs that are always a combination of bad beats, bad luck, whatever... and bad play. Most learning players are going to make their share of mistakes, and sometimes you pay more for them than others. Your stats look pretty good, I don't raise 88-22 preflop, I think they are better drawing hands to a set than anything, but that may be different with 6-max? Overplaying overcards is something with which many players struggle.

I have run bad for thousands of hands, losing as much as 250% of my bankroll. I wouldn't consider your bad run that bad.

Make sure you aren't playing different because you are losing... Post hands that you are unsure of, and study the boards, books, and articles. Nothing to worry about though, it really is a small downswing, relatively speaking.

[stevew]

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I have run bad for thousands of hands, losing as much as 250% of my bankroll.

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Is that a typo? Otherwise it sounds as if you're playing too large for your bankroll. Or is your bankroll replenishable?