i do this crap all the time... TT BB

bonanz · #1 01-13-2005, 03:49 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Reef · #2 01-13-2005, 04:17 AM

looks pretty standard to me.

Knoler · #3 01-13-2005, 04:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i do this crap all the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

What, you mean play your hands well?

To me, this is a must bet flop and I'd still bet out on the scary turn, to be honest. Once you get raised, with a set it's usually time for the 3-bet, but with the 4 straight on the board, I think calling is better. (Anyone disagree and shove a 3-bet down CO's throat?)

Anyhow, I'd call the turn, and then call the river too. If you hit one of your 10 outs to boat or better, I'd check raise him.

Long story short - nice hand.

Regards,
-Brian

milesdyson · #4 01-13-2005, 04:29 AM

Like I said earlier today, you can't flop a set unless the board is suited and connected. You lucked out that you had the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think calling the river here is -EV but +sanity and you won't have the chance to punch your monitor in the case he shows you a bluff.

bonanz · #5 01-13-2005, 04:37 AM

that's waht i meant do this all the time... i know i'm so beat right here, but need to show this down.

i don't know i've just been getting hammered over 10k hands and have lost almost all bearing on what is any good anymore [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

it's probably just crazy talk, but thoughts start to creep in my head like paying off when i'm pretty sure i'm beat like this is cost me money over this 10k stretch...

sanity sake made me call so i wouldn't have to buy a new desk if i got shown 2pair but i don't know...

i just feel like i've really been paying off with a lot of second best hands... i don't know...i know blah blah paying off for one bet in a biggish pot isn't a big leak etc etc... i'm just going crazy

boo hoo

but i actually posted a small win tonight...for the first time since i can remember so it was a good confidence rebuilder

/end cry lol

milesdyson · #6 01-13-2005, 05:09 AM

Yeah, downslides suck, but they come and go. They really do go.

I'm about even at .50/1 for 4k hands, but I know I've just been getting crap for cards. This TT hand is exactly like what's been happening to me. I've flopped sets, check raised flops, and had higher sets rivered on me, check raised turns and had gutshots stay in against me, etc. etc. etc. It's annoying as hell, and I can't wait until a good stretch, but there's nothing I can do but keep playing a game I know is better than the typical Party folk are playing.

Verdi · #7 01-13-2005, 06:12 AM

It's not bad play. But I wouldn't have called the river. I know that it's tempting to find out if he's bluffing or not, but you say yourself that you know that you're beat. I say that it's an easy fold. Not every time though as you don't want to be too predictable but certainly most of the time. I think that the ability to lay down a hand you know is a loser is the difference between being a winner and breakeven/lose.

Also, if you catch a set on the flop you're either going to win big or lose big. If you don't, you haven't played it well.

I also play 0.5/1 (at Prima) after recently switching from the 0.25/0.5 tables. I think the 0.5/1 are in fact easier to beat. There are less morons who will help eachother make less bad plays. I think it's called schooling, when many bad players make the pots so big that seeing the flop with any suited cards will be a less bad play compared to playing a solid and tight table.

Anyway, after maybe 10 hours of play (600 hands?) I'm now up almost 90BB (well, $90). I had one losing session where I lost $40 but apart from that it's all been positive.

Wario · #8 01-13-2005, 06:35 AM

You played this fine. Against an unknown player I don't think the river call is -EV, it'll be a two pair, a lower set or something stupid often enough.

Don't beat yourself up over making crying calls on the river in a big pot.

[ QUOTE ]
(Anyone disagree and shove a 3-bet down CO's throat?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think that would be too much, we're drawing here most of the time.

Although the fact that you suggested it is awesome, I like your style [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Carmine · #9 01-13-2005, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think calling the river here is -EV but +sanity and you won't have the chance to punch your monitor in the case he shows you a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like everything else we work towards in this game I think the +sanity will come from making the right move EV wise no matter what the results of one paticular hand are.

Can someone help me do the math to figure out the the right move. I think "at best" are odds are 7:10 being beaten here. 7 times he shows the K and 3 times two pair or a bluff. By calling the river 7 out of 10 times we lose 1 bet and 3 out of ten times we win X bets (X being all the bets that went into pot on previous rounds which we would forfeit by not calling). So how do we set up a proportion to find out how many bets need to be in the pot to make calling nuetral EV.

(7/10)(-1) + (3/10)(+X)=0 (I have no idea if this is right)
If it is correct however the answer would then be X=2.3 bets. So everytime the pot is bigger than 2 bets it would be correct to call even knowing you will lose 7/10 times. That can't be right. Can it??

Gatts · #10 01-13-2005, 08:06 AM

Think of it like this: If Hero is good 3/10 of the time there needs to be ten bets for every 3 he puts in, or something close to 3.5. Your problem lies in the estimate. It's probably closer to 1/10.