Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?

[phish]

It's effect on true variance can be positive, negative or neutral, depending on how you tilt. True variance here is defined as deviation from expectation.

However, when most people talk about 'variance', they really mean downswings (cause nobody talk about up variance, they just assume they're that good). And tilting will of course have big impact on your downswing, hence heightening the illusion of 'variance'.