I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)

[AceofSpades]

The thing is that bet size only = folding eqt preflop because you are only representing the two cards in your hand.

After the flop, it's based on the read they have and flop betting patterns,

* The reason an overpair is so valuable is because it is a hard hand to put your opponent on postflop *

So conversely it is a hard hand to represent convincingly enough that your opponent folds any reasonable hand. Of course he will fold any bluff raise here. But probably also do that to a call, and bet on the turn.

I've called this three bet (with a pair on flop) here before at least three times....The problem with your line is the bets
say:

1. My overcards missed, I've not gonna risk much here

2. You raised? You mean I'm not going to win this pot?

Wait, look, now I have a massive hand, aces even! You must fold here! hurry, hurry! fold now! I have massive hand! So please, please, please fold!

I think I like the checkraise all-in or check-call, maybe even check-call, push the turn if you must get all your chips in here.

I've called here with (45) 2nd pair before (and won) when I smelled the desperation.

[adanthar]

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That was the main reason why I bet so small, so I could 3 bet with folding equity.

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Your folding equity on this particular flop has relatively little to do with pot odds. If you convince your opponent he has 2 or 5 outs thoroughly enough, he's folding whether he's getting 3:1 to call or not. If you don't, he calls with far worse odds than that.

edit: if your opponent pushes 7K into a 2700 chip pot, he isn't gonna fold to a 3 bet in the first place. If he has something like 88 a push is the last thing on his mind.

[ActionJeff]

very interesting hand. I would rarely try to pull this play off against a smart opponent. Only to mix it up because I would sometimes make that lead with a monster too. Overall, I don't really like your line .I think betting 1000 is pretty awful unless you think he has a very limited raising range, because otherwise you are killing the value of your draw. You can't expect to have folding equity if he raises ur 1000 bet lmao. I think on a balance, I would check, but it is a little player dependent. If he made a reasonable bet I would call. If he made a less reasonable bet I would fold or move all in, your line here really depends on the opponent and your play up to that point.

[ansky451]

Ok, here are some of my thoughts on the responses, and sort of my defense.

Reasons I hate a check raise-push. If I check raise all in, it really doesn't look all that strong, and I think that play looks like a ballsy played whiffed AK a lot of the time. Basically, if I were my opponenet with 88, 99 or something to that effect this hand, and I got check raised all in, my thought process most likely would be, "He checked and I bet, my bet really looks like a steal. There arent many hands that hit this board hard, and he knows this. He thinks I'm stealing this pot from his hand, which is very likely AK. Overpairs rarely would check here, and risk giving a free card on a draw heavy board. Therefore I think my 99 is best." Yeah, so ultimately, it looks like I am putting him on a steal with nothing-- since I would bet if I were the villain here after being checked to, with literally any 2.

Reasons I hate betting out 1000 or more: If I bet 1000, I HATE getting raised all in and not getting a chance to see a turn card, or getting a chance to push the villain off his hand. I agree that ideally, betting 1000, then pushing to a raise of 2500 would look strongest. However by betting 1000 I risk the chance that my opponent will just raise all in because he will think any pot sized raise almost commits him anyway. Like Lloyd said, one of the interesting things about this hand, is the stack sizes.

Another thing, I don't know if this supports my case, or hurts it. I pushed almost insantaneously after getting reraised, so I wonder whether you would percieve that as a tell of strength, or weakness.

To be honest, I'm surprised at the number of people who say they call this with any pair. I didn't realize this play reeked of a draw...

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, here are some of my thoughts on the responses, and sort of my defense.

Reasons I hate a check raise-push. If I check raise all in, it really doesn't look all that strong, and I think that play looks like a ballsy played whiffed AK a lot of the time. Basically, if I were my opponenet with 88, 99 or something to that effect this hand, and I got check raised all in, my thought process most likely would be, "He checked and I bet, my bet really looks like a steal. There arent many hands that hit this board hard, and he knows this. He thinks I'm stealing this pot from his hand, which is very likely AK. Overpairs rarely would check here, and risk giving a free card on a draw heavy board. Therefore I think my 99 is best." Yeah, so ultimately, it looks like I am putting him on a steal with nothing-- since I would bet if I were the villain here after being checked to, with literally any 2.

Reasons I hate betting out 1000 or more: If I bet 1000, I HATE getting raised all in and not getting a chance to see a turn card, or getting a chance to push the villain off his hand. I agree that ideally, betting 1000, then pushing to a raise of 2500 would look strongest. However by betting 1000 I risk the chance that my opponent will just raise all in because he will think any pot sized raise almost commits him anyway. Like Lloyd said, one of the interesting things about this hand, is the stack sizes.

Another thing, I don't know if this supports my case, or hurts it. I pushed almost insantaneously after getting reraised, so I wonder whether you would percieve that as a tell of strength, or weakness.

To be honest, I'm surprised at the number of people who say they call this with any pair. I didn't realize this play reeked of a draw...


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Any thoughts on this?