Flush draw on flop

[Al P]

I'm in MP but last to act with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, EP calls, Hero?

[pokerrookie]

I say call. Your flush may not be best, and you have no overcards. If you had an A, raise on the strength of the nut flush, with a K raise on the potential of a draw to an overpair, in addition to flush.

But another question, with only 3 players, why didnt you fold preflop?

[Al P]

I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Droolie,

If the table is really passive, how often will they bet the turn? How often are they betting made hands vs. drawing hands?

If they will bet the turn and the river the majority of the time, your relative position to the bettor (having EP trapped) leaves you in a great place to extract bets later in the hand. This needs to be considered in an analysis of a hand where you aren't gaining equity if anyone folds to your raise on the flop.

This isn't nearly as easy of a raise as everyone is making it out to be.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Droolie,

If the table is really passive, how often will they bet the turn? How often are they betting made hands vs. drawing hands?

If they will bet the turn and the river the majority of the time, your relative position to the bettor (having EP trapped) leaves you in a great place to extract bets later in the hand. This needs to be considered in an analysis of a hand where you aren't gaining equity if anyone folds to your raise on the flop.

This isn't nearly as easy of a raise as everyone is making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you leaning towards a call here? Situations come up like this all the time and I always play them the same way versus passive opponents. You're right that calling isn't that bad but I still think raising is better against passive opponents and it's something I'll do every time, which for me is an easy raise.

In a three way pot I expect the BB to lead the turn a high % of the time if we just call the flop. The pot is small and if we have to face 2 cold on the turn we probably don't have the odds to see the river. When we raise the flop we disguise the flush draw nicely and our expectation goes up when we hit and one of the villians improves or has a set or something. This I believe winds up being a wash when we might have gotten more bets by waking up on the turn or river when we make our flush. We also garauntee ourselves odds to see this through to the river. I'm not terribly concerned with slight edges or slight disadvantages in equity as this is not a flop pump but a free card play. The fact that's it's close to even is what is important.

[droolie]

This is an easy raise.

You have two callers and a 35% edge in equity. You might get a free card on the turn if you need it. You have to assume that your flush will win here.

[Al P]

I think it's extremely close in situations like this.

We're contributing 33% of the chips and expect to get back 35%. I agree.

Assuming our flush wins here 100% of the time is foolish.

Our flushes don't hold up 100% of the time do they? Let's say they win 90% (someone with a large PT db can find a more accurate number on completed hands).

There goes our equity edge.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's extremely close in situations like this.

We're contributing 33% of the chips and expect to get back 35%. I agree.

Assuming our flush wins here 100% of the time is foolish.

Our flushes don't hold up 100% of the time do they? Let's say they win 90% (someone with a large PT db can find a more accurate number on completed hands).

There goes our equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your flush will not always win but you should play with a high desgree of confidence that when your flush comes in you will win the hand. You have a slim equity edge that factors in the times when your flush loses. The reason why this is not close is the free card element. Not raising here is bad.

[bottomset]

the ability to get free cards, and possibly win UI easily cover the sml % of times you complete but don't win