How much THEORETICAL money did I lose here?

JimmyV · #1 07-07-2005, 10:47 AM

UTG is 49/24* and has a 1.56 postflop aggression factor -- so I like my seat. Note that UTG+1 posts this hand.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $30.
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Qc Kh (straight, king high).
Hero has 9c 9d (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: UTG wins 7.25 BB. 

So how much THEORETICAL money did I lose?

Anyone have a different read after the flop action than I did?

* edit: n = 84 hands

highlife · #2 07-07-2005, 01:00 PM

you prob only missed one bet because villian isnt that aggressive.

The check on the turn is really bad though, especially considering you didnt raise the river brick.

JimmyV · #3 07-07-2005, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you prob only missed one bet because villian isnt that aggressive.

The check on the turn is really bad though, especially considering you didnt raise the river brick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...

results in white.

Justin A · #4 07-07-2005, 06:32 PM

WTF is going on here? This is awful.

DcifrThs · #5 07-07-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you prob only missed one bet because villian isnt that aggressive.

The check on the turn is really bad though, especially considering you didnt raise the river brick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...

results in white.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you saying that since he had one of the few hands that beat you rather than the many hands you missed bets by playing so passive that its right to not raise?

if you put this up w/o results id say this is like at least a one full bb error on average given the play up until that point...many times you'll get the full 2bbs and a few times you'll lose many more and sometimes you get 0 b/c he folded...n/m, im just stating the obvious, but i do think that its a ev mistake to not raise.

-Barron

NLSoldier · #6 07-07-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is going on here? This is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

felson · #7 07-07-2005, 07:28 PM

Oh, I get it. You saw his hand trembling, right?

baronzeus · #8 07-07-2005, 08:01 PM

I don't understand. Bet the turn. Raise the river. WTF? "My opponent checked the turn, he HAS to have the nuts!"

You saved $120 by not putting in 2 more bets at least but you lost 1 billion trillion sklansky dollars. I hope it was a good tradeoff.

JimmyV · #9 07-07-2005, 09:01 PM

What hand(s) are you putting this opponent on given the uncharacteristically passive way he played the flop?

albedoa · #10 07-07-2005, 10:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you prob only missed one bet because villian isnt that aggressive.

The check on the turn is really bad though, especially considering you didnt raise the river brick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...

results in white.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh crap, you're right. Fold preflop.