TOC hand question

[MtnDave]

Question about the TOC hand where two players go all in with QQ and JJ and Howard folds AK. This may be the correct play in a regular tourney, but in a winner-take-all, I think I would call. I can't be that big a dog.

[cowpie]

I think Howard folded because he thought one of them (the last one who went all in) had KK or AA. If he had known they had QQ and JJ I think he would've called.

[MtnDave]

True. But he knows that they know that it is winner-takes-all, so they will be adjusting their playing style also. And, having AK diminishes the probability of AA or KK.
I'm still thinking, that in the given circumstances, I would call. A big stack is a real weapon in this type of game.

[DonkeyKong]

AK ~36%
QQ ~47%
JJ ~17%

But if somebody else had AK -- very possible (AK v AK v QQ);
18% v 18% v 65%

If its AK v AQ v QQ
AK 40%
AQ 4%
QQ 56%

If its AK vs AQ v KK
AK 19%
AQ 9%
KK 72%

If its AK v JJ v KK:
AK 25%
JJ 20%
KK 55%

If its AK vs JJ vs AA
AK 6%
JJ 19%
AA 75%

So; he is most likely 20-40% to triple up and only v AA is it terrible... Its a closer call than I first thought but I think its the right play...

I thought Howard played very well and made good aggressive bets. Same with PokerSuperstars... He makes some mistakes but he clearly thinks about the range of hands his opponent may have, runs the probabilities in his head and goes with it... I pick Lederer and Chan as my top two based on the TV plays (which I know isn't much)...

[willie]

definitely feared kk or aa, yes the odds are diminished that they have these hands, but it's still something to be wary of.

[TStoneMBD]

chan calling a massive allin bet COLD? Dudes gotta have kings or aces. If he knew that they had JJ and QQ he would have definitely called because he would have had tremendous equity.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
chan calling a massive allin bet COLD? Dudes gotta have kings or aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, clearly that's not the case since he had QQ. Who was the initial pusher, and how short was he? The reason I ask is, I wonder if chan could have conceivably had AKs or JJ.

EDIT: Since my favorite thing to do lately is quote pokerstove: AKo has 20% equity versus {AA-QQ} and {AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo}. I don't think there's any plausible range of hands you could put them on to get Howard's equity over 25%.

[betgo]

I don't play in the TOC, but with two people allin in front of me I generally fold anything but KK or AA. There are exception with very loose players or shallow money.

It is unlikely he is up against AQ and AJ. He probably is up against atleast one underpair, if not AA or KK. Against the two underpair, he had a 36% chance. It is unlikley he would have more than a 40% chance to win the hand, but if one of his opponents has AA, he has about a 5% chance.

AK is a hand that is good to go allin on a semibluff in a lot of situations (you can sometimes do the same with AQ or even AJ), but it is not that great a hand to call an allin with.

[betgo]

When Chan called the allin, there are 4 hands he could be expected to have AA, KK, QQ, or AK. AA is a disaster for Lederer. AK or KK are bad for him. QQ is OK, but not particularly good.

[MtnDave]

Thanks for all the comments. I only ran some of the hands on twodimes. All of the comments in this thread deal with regular tournaments. I guess my question is does your action change given that it is winner-takes-all?