hand reading exercise #3 (5max)

[yellowjack]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 77
MP has QTs or AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is some rationale behind my thoughts:

1) When you 3-bet the river, this really narrows down your range of hands to QQ, or 77. The raise on the river has to be discouraging if hero's hand is just an overpair since there's trips on the board, but hero's 3-bet says he can beat trips at the very least. Anything else is a spew, because LAG could concievably holding a 3 in his hand since he "just cc'ed 2 bets" preflop.

2) Hands like AQ, KQ, QT are ruled out by the 3-bet on the river for reasons stated above.

3) I'm immediately putting villain on a Q with med-high kicker from the flop raise. If villain holds a Q, then it is 3 times more likely for hero to be holding 77 than QQ.
i.e. When villain holding a Q, there are C(2,2)=1 combination of QQ left, whereas there are still C(3,2)=3 combinations of 77 left.

[Augster]

Fun. Let's see how badly I do here.

1. AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK, JJ, and MAYBE AQs and TT.

2. I think you continuation bet your entire pre-flop
range. To 3-bet though, oh that's question 4.

3. His range now is, AQ, KQ, QJ, QTs, TT, 99, 88.

4. To 3-bet, I think your range is, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, QJ, TT, and 77.

5. You can now rule out AQ.

6. Either QT or TT.

7. I don't know. More often, I'd say he has QT than TT, obviously, and knowing that, it opens up your range a lot more. I'd be afraid of TT, if we didn't have it, but I'd still 3-bet, AA, KK, QQ, 77, and TT.

Good idea.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you C/R the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

given my reads, this is arguably the correct play. at game speed it didn't occur to me. this is something I need to work on.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats your resulsts with A2-A6s and QJ-Q10 and J10 from utg in a five handed game? I am currently raising A7s,KJ,J10s but not QJo or J10o from that position. I am also raising 66 and possibly 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not recommending my pf standards to others. they are based on my own comfort levels (ex. I hate 55 and 66) and are likely not optimal. as for results, I don't have anything documented because the only tracking software I'm aware of that is available for macs slows down my computer way too much.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
hero's 3-bet says he can beat trips at the very least. Anything else is a spew, because LAG could concievably holding a 3 in his hand since he "just cc'ed 2 bets" preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not worried about trip 3s here at all. a non-tricky LAG is popping me on the turn every time here with a 3.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
3. His range now is, AQ, KQ, QJ, QTs, TT, 99, 88.

[/ QUOTE ]
too narrow. villain is cc'ing 50% of the time here! any Qx is a possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
5. You can now rule out AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
not what I was thinking. I agree that AQ is now less likely, but I don't agree that villain is never just calling with it, so we can't rule it out.

[2+2 wannabe]

he has QT

you have AA-QQ

1) Probably TT+, AQ+
2) You bet with any hand that you raise with preflop.
3) He has a Q and probably a decent side card like 9-K, or a set or 2 pair.
4) 3-bet with QQ/77/AA/KK/AQ/KQ
5) Set and 2 pair (that is Q7 and Q3, he still technically holds 2 pair with any Q).
6) QT
7) 77/QQ-AA

Good post.