Set on flop, lots of action

ep510 · #1 09-30-2005, 04:29 AM

UTG+1 is 16.5/6.7/2.9 over 550 hands.
MP1 is 55/17/1.7 over 100 hands.

Pf 3-bet since UTG+1 is straightforward, and will play AK predictably postflop. Flop, I call waiting for turn to raise. Comments?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls

MyTurn2Raise · #2 09-30-2005, 04:53 AM

It sucks, but I believe AQ just drew out on you. Looking at MP1's stats, I don't think there is any way he doesn't have the straight. He knows the donk won't fold, so a bluff against you is useless (some implicit collusion here). I think you have to put the donk on AK and I'm sure MP1 did too. You're beat over 95% of the time IMO.

Then again, it's 1BB call for a 15BB pot. Might have to call.

Piiop · #3 09-30-2005, 05:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at MP1's stats, I don't think there is any way he doesn't have the straight. He knows the donk won't fold, so a bluff against you is useless (some implicit collusion here). I think you have to put the donk on AK and I'm sure MP1 did too. You're beat over 95% of the time IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the players mixed up. UTG+1 is the TAGgy player, MP1 is the donk. River is UTG+1 checks, donk bets.

Piiop · #4 09-30-2005, 05:03 AM

I don't know why UTG+1 playing straightforwardly with AK postflop makes you 3bet. I would call since MP1 has already called.

I would 3bet the flop, I don't think you need to wait for anything here.

Turn and river are good.

rmarotti · #5 09-30-2005, 05:56 AM

Not 3betting the flop sucks.

#6 09-30-2005, 12:04 PM

I think you're recap of the game and your preflop 3-bet is a little rosy.

1. Smooth call the flop. If your set hits, great.
2. Your set hit, and UTG+1 has shown he's pretty committed. You HAVE to 3-bet here. That puts UTG+1 in a squeeze with MP1 still to act. IF MP1 is A/K or a higher set, which is not likely given the call preflop, he's going to stay. MP1 is the donk who will call.

3. I think it's very likely that you're still good here. There is a range of hands that has you beat - AQ, KQ, maybe QJ with that VPIP, but it's just as likely that these guys are on AK, AJ, AT, or even A9 and they flopped, turned, or rivered 2pr.

Bill C · #7 09-30-2005, 01:08 PM

I'd be more worried about UTG+1 and less so about MP1. You sure have odds for the call on the river, plus you don't want to get bet off a good hand by a donk when there's a big pot. But if UTG+1 now RAISES, then "Houston, we have a problem." If he raises, he probably has the goods, and you might want to fold, as you could end up going on a multi-bet toboggan ride.

Just my $.02 worth...
bc

brettbrettr · #8 09-30-2005, 01:32 PM

This is stupid. Just jam the flop, please.