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#1
09-27-2005, 01:51 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?). So it’s 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. Getting only 12:1, I can’t call this, no? [/ QUOTE ] this doesn't seem quite right because it doesn't account for the times when he has KK or QQ, or is that the :2 in 58:2? I used to be pretty good at math, but high school itself is barely a memory... This is the only math I can figure here: You have to be certain that he has aces at least 11 out of 12 times (about 92% sure) to fold here. Can you ever be that sure about something in this game, especially at those limits? Granted, you have a good read on the guy, so it may be close 
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#2
09-27-2005, 01:55 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
But your opponent has given you much information during the play of the hand, so this is not a question of abstract odds alone. You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct. You know this player, we don't.
However, against most players they can have any live pocket pair to call your raise on fourth if they don't believe you have trips. Or a big three flush that paired jacks on fourth. If you assign any probability to those hands, you may have a call here.
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#3
09-27-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct. [/ QUOTE ] How so? If he has pocket KK or QQ than OP wins the hand with KKQQ vs. KKJJ or QQJJ.
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#4
09-27-2005, 02:50 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
Because Roland is comparing the pot odds to the card odds of his opponent having a hand he can beat. If he narrows the starting hands as specified, he does not have sufficient pot odds to call.
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#5
09-27-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're saying that he will NEVER have a starting hand other than pocket QQ, KK or split aces to call your double bet on fourth here. If that is true, your fold is correct. [/ QUOTE ] How so? If he has pocket KK or QQ than OP wins the hand with KKQQ vs. KKJJ or QQJJ. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, those are the two times I win. The other 58 times he will have aces up and I lose. Thus, the odds are 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. I win this only 3.4% of the time (if my assumptions about his calling range are correct).
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#8
09-27-2005, 02:24 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Or a big three flush that paired jacks on fourth. [/ QUOTE ] I think he folds that. And any pair lower than jacks. [/ QUOTE ] Well, you know your opponent better than we do. For my part, I'm more likely to give it up with aces on 4th (or on 5th if my opponent had bet into my open J's) than I am with Q-Q-A-J. This is what offsets the fact that it is mathematically much more likely for him to have A-x than K-K or Q-Q.
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#9
09-27-2005, 02:22 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
Next, some math. [/ QUOTE ] I hope I entered this correctly, but I just wanted to see for myself what twodimes would show... Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1244890 pokenum -7s kh ks qs qc th 7c 6s - ad js jc 5c / ah 2d 9d 8c ts 7d 3d 6d 5s 9c 7-card Stud Hi: 26970 enumerated outcomes cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Qs 6s Qc 7c Kh Th 16980 62.96 9990 37.04 0 0.00 0.630 Js Jc 5c Ad 9990 37.04 16980 62.96 0 0.00 0.370
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#10
09-27-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: Is this really correct?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Next, some math. [/ QUOTE ] I hope I entered this correctly, but I just wanted to see for myself what twodimes would show... Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1244890 pokenum -7s kh ks qs qc th 7c 6s - ad js jc 5c / ah 2d 9d 8c ts 7d 3d 6d 5s 9c 7-card Stud Hi: 26970 enumerated outcomes cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Qs 6s Qc 7c Kh Th 16980 62.96 9990 37.04 0 0.00 0.630 Js Jc 5c Ad 9990 37.04 16980 62.96 0 0.00 0.370 [/ QUOTE ] What’s this? Kings up vs. Jacks with an ace kicker? I don’t get it… [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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