How long until the first person is knocked out?

trevorwc · #1 07-06-2005, 08:58 AM

Will someone be knocked out on the first hand of the main event(on any of the 3 days)? Just doing some quick math, 1 in 221 for pocket AA, so roughly 10 people (of 2200) will get AA in the first hand each day. That's 30 people who will start their tournament with rockets. And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME. And that's usually a recipe for fireworks, especially if they are two internet players who ram-and-jam. Obviously a LOT of people are going to have to get knocked off quick on each of the day one's, but hand 1? Maybe that hypothetical that so many people talk about (someone moves all-in and you have KK, do you call?) will actually come through.

sekrah · #2 07-06-2005, 09:03 AM

I would guesstimate that it's quite likely multiple players are eliminated on the first hand on all 3 days.

jcmack13 · #3 07-06-2005, 09:06 AM

My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.

Just hope it's not one of them.

sekrah · #4 07-06-2005, 09:07 AM

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My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you made a GREAT bet!.. I think you are a huge favorite to win that.

MicroBob · #5 07-06-2005, 09:09 AM

The situation for someone to be knocked out on the first hand is probably a bit different than what you describe.

In the $3k NL event on Friday my table had a player knocked out on the very first hand.
It's not the main-event...but it's a pretty good sized event still (1010 players at $3k apiece...1st place paid $650k).

Here's the situation...only 4 players are at the table (lots of late arrivals...everyone was there within 3-5 minutes...but for the VERY first hand it was just 4 of us).

UTG (who is actually in the CO) limps, I fold the button. SB completes.

Flop is 679r.

UTG and SB: bet, raise, re-raise and then go all-in and call.

It's my very first hand at ANY WSOP and I'm looking back and forth at the betting and am thinking "Holy Crap!! WTF are these guys doing?"

Flop was 679
UTG has T8o for the nut-straight.
SB has 99 for top-set.

The straight holds up...SB is history. Dealer shouts "Seat open, Table 189!" and everyone around us is staring at our table and thinking "What the hell happened over there?"

I was sitting next to the guy who had the straight and we became chatty over the next several hours (and the next day I bumped into him at the Bellagio and we talked some more).

I had witnessed quite an impressive hand in my WSOP debut.
...in a few minutes it was the two of us sandwiched between two world-champs (Huck Seed and Tom McEvoy).

MicroBob · #6 07-06-2005, 09:11 AM

If you got even odds on this then your roommates are morons.

There is virtually no way you won't win this bet.

Even 3 or 4 minutes would be tough for them to win.
10 minutes?? Are you kidding??

Jonathan · #7 07-06-2005, 09:31 AM

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There is virtually no way you won't win this bet.

Even 3 or 4 minutes would be tough for them to win.
10 minutes?? Are you kidding??

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That's exactly what I was thinking!

Suerte,
Jonathan

PokerGoblin · #8 07-06-2005, 09:32 AM

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And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME.

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I am sorry, I am retarded and it is early, can you tell me how you came to this conclusion? The '1 in 24' part that is.

Thanks

PG

drewjustdrew · #9 07-06-2005, 09:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry, I am retarded and it is early, can you tell me how you came to this conclusion? The '1 in 24' part that is.

Thanks

PG

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget that two aces are already out of the deck. That takes it from 156-1 down to 24 -1. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

PokerGoblin · #10 07-06-2005, 09:43 AM

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You forget that two aces are already out of the deck. That takes it from 156-1 down to 24 -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I need some more coffee cause the brain isn't computing, which usually isn't a problem.

156-1? Don't you mean 220 -1?

Please elaborate. Now I am perplexed.

PG