22 defence

[Roy6]

Villain 30/21/1.4
He is preety agressive, once made me lay down JJ on a QxxK board when he held also jacks.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.00 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.00 BB.

[Spicymoose]

Hmm, this seems like a tough one to me.

I think I normally raise the flop, bet the turn, and check the river. But then if he 3-bets the flop, or leads the turn, I am in a really difficult situation. I like your line, because he is really agro, and you let him do his bluffing thing.

What do you do if you don't hit your flush on the river? What do you do if the river is an ace?

[Cerril]

The passive fish play seems to have merit against someone who's particularly aggro (especially someone who will tend toward three betting a raise with nothing, instead of folding). That said, I'd really like better showdown value against someone like this than 22. yes, it's a pair (and you can definitely make a case for it), but you're looking at getting 4:3 odds here on a calldown, and if you go in with 22 against this guy you probably have to expect to see a showdown.

It's a good result, and you're probably taking it a bit better than 50%, but I still don't like the 'hang on and call' approach against even a maniac with hands like 22 or 33. I'd rather have something like 67s (not that I'd want that either) or another hand where I can fold if I don't hit.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather have something like 67s (not that I'd want that either) or another hand where I can fold if I don't hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing about 22 is that it has already hit even before the flop. Most suited connector hands get most of their value when they hit a pair, rather then their straight/flush potential since it is heads up. That is why 22 is decent to play preflop. As long as the flop isn't horrendous, you can continue with it. As for this flop, it is really tricky, because we have a pair, and a flush draw. About 35% of the time he has our flush dominated, but that means we win about 22% of the time from the flush (35% of the time the flush comes * 65% of the time he doesn't have us dominated), not to mention all the times he is bluffing with his non pair.

Again, I think it is close.

[Roy6]

how did you calculate these numbers?

[Cerril]

It is close, but since you're only getting 4:3 preflop and 4.5:2.5 postflop, I think you need to be winning more often than that. I may be calling this guy more of a maniac than he is, of course, in which case you may be able to fold a nonheart, but that means you shouldn't continue in the first place.

I think it is close and might help slow this guy down against you a bit, but this isn't a hand I like to play. The reason I said I'd rather have 76s here is because at least I can get away from a no pair/no draw hand, and if I do hit, it's one card that likely didn't hit him (rather than every card that comes being an overcard and a possible pair for him).

Given the stats, I'd like to be raising the turn rather than calling down, but since he'd only fold hands you beat and probably not any low hearts, correctly (since you'd fold to a river bet in this case), that's also more of an image play.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
how did you calculate these numbers?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 47 unseen cards, and 9 of those are hearts.

The chance of his first card being a non heart is 38/47.
The chance of his second card being a non heart once his first card is a non heart is 37/46.

38/47*37/46=65% of the time he doesn't have a heart.

This is slightly off, because the fact that he raised preflop, and bet the flop, give us some extra information, but if you were to just pick a random hand given your cards and the board, that would be the number.

[Roy6]

He mucked A3, no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I think against this kind of player it's better to call all the way and he will hang himself. I don't know what he would have done if I raised flop though.