Calculate your winrate and bankroll requirements with this

[kiddo]

Every week there is a new post about winrates and bankroll requirements. Maybe this can help some of those posters.

Me and Snow (another swedish 2+2er) have created a page where u can calculate how big bankroll you need (given your BB/100 and Standard deviation). And calculate how much your true, long term, winrate can differ from the one you got right now (given your number of hands, your winrate, your standarddeviation and how sure u want to be (1-100%)

The math behind it is taken from Malmuths Gambling Theory and Other Topics . A book you should read if u are interested in these sort of things.

http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php

[Josh W]

Nice tool, I checked it out, thanks.

How does it determine bankroll requirements? What percent risk of ruin? 1%? 5%?

Thanks,

Josh

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Maximum loss in BB (bankroll you need):-205
This will happen after: 8784 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to know how it knows I'm going to lose the 8784th hand.

Cool link. I can't find the confidence interval on PT. Could someone tell me how to calculate this?

[Josh W]

[note that this is just a guess by Josh W]

I think it's something you input.

For example, if you put in 50%, and it spits out a minimum of 1BB/100h and maximum of 3BB/100h, that means that there is a 50% chance of your winrate falling in that window.

If you put in 90%, and it spits out a min. of 0.4BB/100h and max of 3.5BB/100h, it means that there's a 90% chance of your actual winrate falling in that window.

I hope that makes sense, and more importantly, I hope it's right and I'm not leading people astray.

Josh W, wild guesser du jour

cool, thx

[Fortitude]

Yeah it's pretty definitive to say this WILL happen after 8748 hands. What does this mean?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it's pretty definitive to say this WILL happen after 8748 hands. What does this mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's saying that you WILL have the proper bankroll at your given BB/100 after the said # of times.

[BruceZ]

See my response here.

[BruceZ]

See my response here . It's actually 1.1%.