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#21
08-19-2005, 02:09 AM
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Re: Calculate your winrate and bankroll requirements with this
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who "maintains a 500BB roll" by cashing out amounts over 500BB has a 100% risk of ruin, in theory: if you play long enough you will always suffer arbitarily large downswings. [/ QUOTE ] I have played 700K hands never dropping more then 350BB. That is 3 years playing, a couple of hours every day. Of course I can hit 500 tomorrow. But saying it is 100% risk of ruin is only right if we all played forever. How much have u dropped? 
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#22
08-19-2005, 04:23 AM
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Re: Calculate your winrate and bankroll requirements with this
Hmm I responded to this already but it hasn't shown up. Apologies if you see this twice.
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Anyone who "maintains a 500BB roll" by cashing out amounts over 500BB has a 100% risk of ruin, in theory: if you play long enough you will always suffer arbitarily large downswings. [/ QUOTE ] I have played 700K hands never dropping more then 350BB. That is 3 years playing, a couple of hours every day. Of course I can hit 500 tomorrow. But saying it is 100% risk of ruin is only right if we all played forever. [/ QUOTE ] That's the point: all these risk of ruin calculations are only right if we play forever. I just wanted to be clear on the meaning of these figures. I've never dropped more than 300BB but I don't play as much as you, or as well as you, so I am sure bigger downswings are to come. Guy.
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#23
08-19-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: Calculate your winrate and bankroll requirements with this
[ QUOTE ]
That's the point: all these risk of ruin calculations are only right if we play forever. [/ QUOTE ] Not so. Many people mistakenly believe that it makes a big difference if you play forever vs. only a few hundred hours. Risk of ruin is a short-term phenomenon for a significant winner. If he doesn't go broke in the first few hundred hours, chances are he never will. This is because once he doubles his bankroll, his risk of ruin is squared, e.g. 1% becomes 0.01%. So his risk of ruin for playing forever is about the same as playing for a few hundred hours. This is for a player who reinvests all his winnings in his bankroll. A player who spends all his winnings will go broke once he hits a big enough losing streak, and how long that takes depends on the size of his bankroll.
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