can i fold KK pre-flop ?

[PrayingMantis]

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So it's up to UTG, who might have aces, or might have AK, or might have nines or JTs and feel frisky.


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If this is your general read regarding an unknown UTG at a ~$100 SNG, who limps/cold-calls all-in after 2 push infront, you are significantly underestimating your opponents, which can cost you dearly, IMO.

But i agree with your general line, and I think I'll call in this spot, for a few reasons: the mere fact that there are 3 all-ins ahead increases the chanses for AK (and AQ), and by that reduces the chances for AA. So naturally, you'll see more QQ than AA, and unless you're playing against a known very tight player/s, calling with KK here should be +EV. Not hugely so, but still.

I don't think folding is a big mistake, though, in this specific spot. But if you're good in handling a big stack, i think it is an auto call, since getting your stack to be x4, even if it's something aroung 0 EV spot, is well worth the risk, and is definitely not -EV in CEV aspects. That's how i see it.

[triplc]

Let me play devil's advocate here...

Against three underpairs (highly unlikely) you are about a 54% chance to win. If you are ahead in the hand, but are up against something like AKo, QQ, and JJ you are a 44% chance to win the hand.

If AA is in the house, you become a significant dog.

So, in the best case scenario, you are putting your life on the line for a little better than a coin flip. Granted, you will quadruple up if you win, and it is a +EV situation unless AA is out there, but I would have a hard time risking my stack here with anything but AA.

Whatever happened to the axiom "you can't win a tourney early, but you can lose it". It seems that this would apply here.

Play well,

CCC

[PrayingMantis]

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If AA is in the house, you become a significant dog.

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Well, usually i'd try to put an assessment, or some kind of a number, instead of just saying IF, to see where I'm standing. Of course that IF AA is in the house you're way behind and in a -EV spot, but how many times you won't see AA here?

The lower the buy-in, more chances you are against a range of hands KK is very much ahead of. And that's why it becomes a very easy call (unless you are willing to give up HUGE +EV spots in order to "survive", which is generally a big mistake). However, as the competition becomes tougher, more chances you are facing AA here, obviously, but still, I feel I might see enough QQ-AK of hands by a marginal player UTG, to make it profitable, even in this level.

I might be wrong and it could be closer. If you can't see UTG limps-calls all-in with anything but AA, it's a clear fold of course - but i think that there's one a good point i like to remember: in the early levels of the game you'll see more people playing marginal hands badly - that's because, naturally, the proportion of good players/bad players early on, is different than it is in the mid-end stages. This is why folding KK PF in an SNG is usually considered a "crime": in early stages you just can't and don't want to put your opponent/s specifically on AA (the ONLY hand you're afraid of), and on later stages - the blinds are simply not small enough, in almost ANY situation, to fold KK, even against the tightest player in the world (unless in some very very rare bubble or bubble-like situations).

[triplc]

Good points, Mantis...my post was simply to present a possible rationale for folding. And I do think it's a close call between calling and folding, really.

One thing that tips in the favor of calling, especially in a Party or Turbo SnG, is that the money is too shallow to wait for a better spot. If this was a multi, I think this is an easier fold.

Still, with one person pushing and two calling all-in in the first round of an SnG it isn't easy to win this hand even when you have the best hand preflop. And using the "gap concept", what hands do you need to have to call three all-ins this early? I definitely lay down QQ and worse, and am on the fence about KK.

Play well,

CCC

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
what hands do you need to have to call three all-ins this early? I definitely lay down QQ and worse, and am on the fence about KK.

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I agree with you that against any kind of reasonable opposition, QQ is in very bad shape here (edit: and a hand like 65s is probably a better call than QQ here, in terms of CEV).

[adanthar]

I agree. The huge chance of AK/KK makes enough of a difference so that QQ has to be tossed but KK's still a call.

Whether I underestimate a typical $100 opponent is a good question, but I've seen too many people (even in the $200 HH's I've looked at) pull this with a middle pair or two suited cards to be folding kings.

[pooh74]

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If my math is correct, it is an easy call for me. You have two "pushes" which means I would be betting t940 into a t2000 pot. About 2.1 to 1 odds.

The only hand I am really worried about is AA. I think the odds of someone waking up with AA is about 4.4% in a ten handed deal.

That means that 95.6% of the time, I will be a 56% favoirte to win the hand three handed (example: in a worse case senario, the BB wakes up with AK and UTG with QQ, I am a 56% favorite to win).

Even the 4.4% time I run into AA, all is not lost. I will still win 18% of the time (example if BB wakes up with AA and UTG has QQ, I will still have a 18% chance to win).

If my math is correct, I make this call, because in the long run, I have a big edge.

Please let me know if I am mistaken. I am new to the game and have plenty to learn.

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I think the next poster pointed this out already but even though your #s may be correct they are utterly useless in THIS scenario for many reasons...mainly, a % of the time someone has AA at any given time is not a way to analyze an all-in with 2 callers...those odds go up DRAMATICally in this case given the context...

IOW, what are the odds someone holds AA in a 10 handed game?

AND

What are the odds of AA when there is an all-in, a caller, then another caller, at level 1 of a tourney?

Unless we are playing with monkeys, good chance of AA in second case...