wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

#1 12-13-2005, 11:53 AM

He and his opponent both had 50k in chips with blinds 200-400/50. Bax raised to 1200 in early position with 9 9, and this guy called in late position. The flop came 5 9 J with 2 spades Bax bets 1500, the guy raises to 4500, Bax reraises to 9k, and the guy calls. The turn is the 3 of spades, and Bax bets 11k. His opponent reraises all in, and Bax has a decision to make for about 30k in chips.

He had only seen the guy get all his chips in one time earlier, and he had turned up the nuts. But he'd also not seen the guy reraise with the nut flush draw when he'd had it 5 other times before...so it was a tough decision. The hands he thought he could beat were AJ with the A and 5 5, but he ended up mucking and living another day.

I think every street could be played differnetly and I think this is a very tough hand...any thoughts?

sheets

gumpzilla · #2 12-13-2005, 12:01 PM

If he thinks the range of hands that he can possibly be up against is AJ, 55, JJ, then I still don't think it's a fold, as he's beating 11/14 of these hands. This is also a very dry looking board, so if we think AJ is at all possible I don't see why AA isn't. I don't think I'm folding the second nuts here, and I think the only reason that one can argue that such a fold is good is if you have an airtight read.

EDIT: Did a flush get there on the turn? That would make much more sense.

schwza · #3 12-13-2005, 12:02 PM

the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

Goodie54 · #4 12-13-2005, 12:03 PM

I don't see this as a tough hand at all with no reads. Bax may be able to provide a very reliable read but short of that, I call the turn here everytime. There's specifically one hand that beats you.

I just can't see folding the turn without a very, very reliable read.

Peace

Goodie

yvesaint · #5 12-13-2005, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only 120 or so BBs

schwza · #6 12-13-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the day i play poker with 1000 bb's is the day i punch myself in the face. would also help to know suits on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only 120 or so BBs

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe, whoops. ok, the day i fold the 2nd nuts in a draw-ish board in a raised pot with 120 bb's (and antes) is, well, not anytime soon.

durron597 · #7 12-13-2005, 12:12 PM

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I just can't see folding the turn without a very, very reliable read.

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how about "he had only seen this guy get it allin once earlier in the day, and he had the nuts"? This is a very very tough hand against a super tight opponent.

#8 12-13-2005, 12:12 PM

sorry...a third spade same on the turn..EDITED ORIG POST
YES I KNOW THATS VERY DIFFERENT SORRY SORRY SORRY

SossMan · #9 12-13-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sorry...a third spade same on the turn..EDITED ORIG POST
YES I KNOW THATS VERY DIFFERENT SORRY SORRY SORRY

[/ QUOTE ]

not very well.

With the 3rd spade coming on the turn, it makes this hand much more interesting. I thought that there still wasn't a flush out and we were folding a set there. whew, i thought i lost my mind. This is a tough hand.

#10 12-13-2005, 12:21 PM

I think that the flop bet was a tad light, and I stringly consider pushing on the flop as well, pricing out the draws and hoping to get called by AJ, the smooth calling overpairs, or bottom set.

I kind of think I check the turn and see if i can somehow see the river cheaply. yikes. I think I am calling the push too..just not sure.

sheets