wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

for the fold to be correct, you have to put your oppenent on a flush draw on the flop. But would a tight player raise on flop with just a flush draw? I don't think so. Most tight players would just call to avoid facing a big reraise and getting shut out of the pot. so if the J being a spade, then I would not fold. however, if J is not a spade, then it is likely that your opponent has AJs, which gave him a flush draw plus top pair, then i would be more worried about a flush on the turn.

[yvesaint]

edit: wait, let me rethink this, i cant get my head straight

He could also have called trying to bluff Bax off an overpair wo/ a spade, not just a set. Plus he's getting 4:1 he could be calling w/ top pair and hoping to fill up to two pair or trips with those odds. No? Plus if you think he can cold call with AJ don't you think its possible he could be calling with a hand like QT,JT,JK since those hands are almost the same cuz they can all be dominated by an early position raising hand such as AK and AQ... Heck, maybe he was trying to get implied odds with a suited gapper or connecter like T8, thus easily giving him a made flush or semi bluffing the draw. It seems like the reraise accomplished nothing in eliminating hands and he may be forced to make this call since villain's range could still be very large.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

Well, maybe not since there are plenty of giant donkeys to go around, but still pretty damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

considering he got a very good player to fold middle set, I don't think it would be too donkeyish.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
But he'd also not seen the guy reraise with the nut flush draw when he'd had it 5 other times before...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is critical. What are the chances that this time he decided to get frisky w/ his flush draw? In order for us to be behind here, he has to have exactly JJ. The more I think about it, the more I put him on black QQ-AA.

[MLG]

Keep in mind, he's only been all-in once, and that was with the nuts. So, does that guy push AA/QQ on the turn here...or call? Either way we're going against something we've seen.

[Jason Strasser]

That flop and turn play demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of deep stacked poker, something I expect from online tourney experts.

-Jason

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
That turn play demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of deep stacked poker, something I expect from online tourney experts.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I can see a few reasons the turn play is bad, but I am far from a deep stack expert. Care to elaborate?

[Jason Strasser]

misread post, fixed it

[Toddy]

I bury him after the flop. I dont give anyone chances to draw to hands.