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  #1  
Old 12-20-2005, 01:18 AM
otctrader otctrader is offline
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Default Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

Party $33, Blinds 75/150 6-handed, stacks rounded off

BB 600
SB 500
BTN 300
CO 1400
UTG+1 2800 <--- me with AKo
UTG 2400 <--- villain, raises to 450

UTG seems solid, range something like 99+,AT+ and somewhat aggressive, so folding equity is dubious if he's holding a pair

I'm usually autoshoving here, but may have found a leak. If you assume zero FE and treat the UTG raise as all-in, ICM has it as a fold by over 4%.

Do I have any other reasonable options here given stack size distribution?
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  #2  
Old 12-20-2005, 01:29 AM
HtotheNootch HtotheNootch is offline
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

I don't play the 33s, but I fold that. Then again my tendency is toward weak/tight when I have a stack like that.

I can basically fold my way ITM and then I like my chances at my level.

Think of it this way. There's only one stack that can bust him - you. You're sitting on his left. He's going to have something. It might not be the immortal nuts, but at best you're looking at a coinflip. He can cripple you - but you can bust him. He's got something.

6 handed I wait for a better spot.
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  #3  
Old 12-20-2005, 03:52 AM
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

The three small stacks mean that finishing in the money isn't too much of a worry if you aren't too careless with this hand.

450 isn't a massive amount (less than 1/6 of your stack). However, his position, aggressivenesses and stack being the only one to do any real damage prevents me from going allin preflop here.

I would do one of two things.

1. Call. If you hit an a A or K, you must be favourite to take what would probably be a very large pot. If not, let it go unless he shows a lot of weakness, you do have position as well.

2. Raise, but not allin. A raise to 1000 will signal that you have a very good hand and his reaction should be a good way of gauging his. You now appear even scarier to him than he did to you because you are re-raising a raise by the only other stack that can hurt you. Again, if he calls then you still have 1800 and much more if you hit A or a K. If he folds you pick up another 675 chips and take a clear lead from which you can dominate the tournament.
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  #4  
Old 12-20-2005, 04:36 AM
The Yugoslavian The Yugoslavian is offline
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

otct,

What do you mean 'ICM has it as a fold by over 4%'?!?

How did you calculate that and what range did you give UTG? 99+, AT+?

Also how do you have no FE? That's simply not true at all.

I'm too tired to do some sorta ICM calcs with different scenarios...but this thread would be helped if you at least lay out what you did and the different things you considered in your calcs.

Yugoslav
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  #5  
Old 12-20-2005, 09:31 AM
otctrader otctrader is offline
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

[ QUOTE ]
Also how do you have no FE? That's simply not true at all.

I'm too tired to do some sorta ICM calcs with different scenarios...but this thread would be helped if you at least lay out what you did and the different things you considered in your calcs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo - in Eastbay's calc it's 30.7% fold/26.5% call/-4.2 diff assuming UTG shoves with the default "tight" range (I think it's 66+,AT+).

Of course you do have some fold equity, but then again you're looking at a 3xbb raise out of UTG who has been solid up to now, and knows he has an aggressive big stack behind him.

Bottom line is I don't have a lot of experience with a 20xbb stack at 75/150 with this stack distribution, and I'm really at a loss over what to do here. I can't fold AK, and calling means throwing in 1/6 of my stack creating a T1100 pot with UTG having 1900 behind. Bah.
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  #6  
Old 12-20-2005, 09:39 AM
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

[ QUOTE ]


Of course you do have some fold equity, but then again you're looking at a 3xbb raise out of UTG who has been solid up to now, and knows he has an aggressive big stack behind him.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG is solid and he knows you are too, he will also know that you will fold a LOT of hands in this spot.
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  #7  
Old 12-20-2005, 09:46 AM
zoobird zoobird is offline
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Default Re: Party $33 - AKo with 18bb\'s behind UTG raise

I would think you have plenty of fold equity here. Not only would your push be pretty scary to him if he has pair up to 99 or so, but stacks are small enough that maybe he's chosen this as a good time to take advantage of his tight image and steal blinds with something a little weaker than you're including in his range
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