Aces big pot.

[tyler_cracker]

I also want to add that there are a couple threads about similar situations going on right now.

Kwaz posted this one, which links to an SS thread:
An important concept from SS.

The question was about the river, but there was another raise flop vs. raise turn question in there that everyone jumped on:
TT in large pot, fold river?

[macdaddy991]

I would 3 bet the flop call a cap and raise the turn. If they still like their hand then I call down.

[sean c]

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This reply is to jake ox as well.

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I'd rather just call the flop with my one pair since no one is folding for one more (and BB isn't folding for two more on the flop). I'm then raising pretty much any turn.

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Meh i see no real reason to wait here the pot is huge his relative position sucks with a players in between him and the flop rasier on both sides. This is a very good flop for aces. I am playing this fast until someone lets me know i shouldn't be.

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I don't like 3-betting the flop because:

- it isn't going to protect our hand; no one is going to fold.

- 3-betting opens us up to a 4-bet from one of the *two* flop bettors, which bloats the pot even further while we're holding just one pair.

- just calling now lets us use our position to observe BB's reaction to UTG's raise, as well as the action on the turn.

I like raising the turn instead because:

- this is the best chance to protect our hand. Anyone with a pair has 5 outs to beat us (unless their other card is an A). There are a couple lame gutshots that could be hanging out. We can't cut their odds down enough to make it incorrect for them to call, but this is the best we can do. Anything that improves our equity in this huge pot -- like getting someone to fold a draw that would have beaten us -- is rad.

- for any draws that aren't folding (OESD, etc.), we charge them the maximum for the privilege of drawing out on us.

- if UTG doesn't 3-bet, we can take a free showdown if we want. (If UTG *does* 3-bet, we're in deep doodoo.)

Frankly, i don't really like waiting for the turn to raise, but i still like it *more* than 3-betting the flop. While this is a great flop for aces, i get nervous when there is a bet and a raise into me on a relatively uncoordinated board when i capped preflop. Our hand is best a lot, but it definitely needs to be protected as much as we can protect it. Raising the turn is better for that goal than 3-betting the flop.

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Hi Tyler a few questions. How many outs would BB need to correctly call 2 bets on the turn assuming UTG bets UTG+1 calls and we raise? UTG needs how many outs to call one more bet? What about UTG+1? Are we sure UTG is going to bet again on the turn? What does it really tell us if BB 3-bets the flop? Does that mean we are behind? How often does our equity dramatically decrease or increase on the turn?

I guess my point is the only valid reason to wait and raise the turn here is to gain more value than a flop 3-bet would gain and of course this is just my opinion. After you answer my questions you may agree or disagree with me no big deal i don't think it matters a ton either way just thought i would throw this out there.

[testaaja]

Wow nice feedback thanks everyone [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

I just reviewed the hands BB & UTG+1 had. They really don't make any sense. I got a good laughter when I was doing this reading. If someone wants to know I can post what they had. It's just that I realize now why I should raise this pot and not just be calling. They would probably just put more money in and that's where the profit comes [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I got alot to learn and thanks to these forums I'm learning alot.

[tyler_cracker]

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How many outs would BB need to correctly call 2 bets on the turn assuming UTG bets UTG+1 calls and we raise?

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BB is getting 19:2 == 9.5:1, requiring 4.5 outs or so. He would be making a small immediate mistake to call, though he can probably call with a gutshot anyway given the implied odds.

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UTG needs how many outs to call one more bet? What about UTG+1?

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If BB calls, UTG and UTG+1 can easily call getting implied odds to chase even their 2-outers.

Still, i maintain that waiting until the turn protects our hand *better* than raising the flop.

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Are we sure UTG is going to bet again on the turn?


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I think the odds of *either* BB or UTG betting again is pretty good.

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What does it really tell us if BB 3-bets the flop? Does that mean we are behind?


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It could mean a lot of things, but it narrows his holdings a little more than if he just calls. It doesn't necessarily mean we're behind, but i'm already nervous about our hand and i'll take all the information i can get.

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How often does our equity dramatically decrease or increase on the turn?


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This is the big thing that makes this not a canonical "wait until the turn to raise" hand. No overcards can come, and there were no flush draws available on the flop, so our equity is not going to change very much on the turn -- at least, not in a way that we can easily discern. "Two Overpair Hands" from SSH, etc. etc.

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I guess my point is the only valid reason to wait and raise the turn here is to gain more value than a flop 3-bet would gain and of course this is just my opinion. After you answer my questions you may agree or disagree with me no big deal i don't think it matters a ton either way just thought i would throw this out there.

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I strongly agree that this is close either way, and that either of our lines is better than the OP's line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Thanks for the discussion.