AK in the SB

bilbo-san · #1 02-19-2005, 07:25 PM

Comments on all streets appreciated. No reads on BB, since I've only been in one revolution.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, UTG+2 (poster) checks, 5 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero caps, BB calls.

I assumed he might just be playing back at me if he thought I was trying to steal, so this was worth a cap.

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Loose call?

River: (9.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Loose call again?

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

bigmac366 · #2 02-19-2005, 07:44 PM

fold to the turn raise, your drawing dead to any heart. loose call downs like this will cost you alot in the long run.

bilbo-san · #3 02-19-2005, 08:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold to the turn raise, your drawing dead to any heart. loose call downs like this will cost you alot in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds he is holding a heart are about 4:1. I am getting 8.5:2 to call the turn and the river. I know the fact that he raised makes it more likely that he has a heart, but how much more? He could be holding a wide range of hands that are worth defending a blind with. He also could be bluffing.

I worry a lot about table image (maybe too much). Without a read on this player, and at these limits, I have a hard time laying this down (at the $4-$8 game live I would almost universally lay this down, as they are quite passive where I play). Do you think that's bleeding money at these limits? Is it just a small -EV play? Is it a huge -EV play?

memphis57 · #4 02-19-2005, 08:33 PM

Based on his pre-flop and flop activity I'd guess BB had either a high pocket pair (9-A) or AKo or AK/Q/J/Ts. Out of all these, a little less than half will contain hearts. Further, the odds of AA, KK, TT, AK and AT are significnatly lower than the others because 4 of those cards are either in your hand or on the board, 2 of which are hearts. I'm too lazy to put all those numbers together, but the result I'm guessing will be something like 40-45% of those possible hands can beat you, either by being AA, KK or containing a heart. Since he called you on the flop and then raised you after a Kh came out, maybe it would be fair to bump the odds of all the K and heart hands by 10-20%, but still his odds of winning the hand are not much over 50%. Thus, I don't see folding here, with a pot of 5.50 after the flop that you could see awarded for just 2 more BBs. That's 3.75 to 1 so he'd have to have a 79% probability of winning to justify a fold (without your turn bet).

So, my line would be to get scared when the Kh came down and check/call the rest of the way.

(BigMac, sorry to disagree with you on 2 posts running, but the consolation is that you're probably right and I'm probably wrong - do mind explaining at greater length what's wrong with my thinking?)

bigmac366 · #5 02-19-2005, 09:18 PM

before i say anything else, it has been pointed out to me that i need to buy a skirt because of how weak tight i am at times. that being said, unless i had a specific read that BB was a maniac/lag or would bluff scare cards, then i fold. without a read i fold because unless he has a heart, that fourth heart should scare him just as much as it does you. but entity or shillx or one of the others who REALLY knows how to play will almost assuredly correct me.