A hand with an odds question ...

[ragedyandy]

I have Ac9c on the button. An EP player raises. There are 4 callers to me and I call. Blinds fold. Flop comes J85r. No clubs. It’s checked around. Turn is 6c (no flush possible). Pre-flop raiser bets. 2 callers to me. So, there are nine big bets in the pot. I close the action and have a gutshot and an overcard. This gives me 7 outs. Obviously none of my outs are to the nut so I have to assign the probability of hitting one of my outs and having my hand hold up. I think any 7 is less diry than an ace. My thinking is that pfr could have AA, AK or JJ (all with reduced likelihood due to my ace and the J on board). He also may have been going for the check-raise on the flop. But all of the players could have a better ace then I do. I don’t think any of them have T9, but that’s an obvious concern. So, I have 7 outs with 2 degrees of dirtiness. There are 46 unseen cards. Odds of hitting one of my outs are ~1 in 6.6 and there are will be 10 Big bets in the pot if I call. How often do I fold, call, raise and why?

Also, I assume the probabilities one actually works with during this hand are arrived at through estimation - you basically take a SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) at it and go with your educated guess. Is that what you guys do or do some of you have the wear-with-all to mentally do something better?

In this hand I called and my card didn’t come. All folded to pfr’s bet.

All comments appreciated.

[clovenhoof]

Pfr wasn't going for the check-raise. He was the raiser, so he's unlikely to conclude a check-raise is in the offing. I think you can guess with a fair degree of confidence that pfr has either AK or (much more likely) an interpair -- tens or nines.

Of the two other callers, I think you can reasonably assume that 1 of the 4 cards contain one of your outs (either 7 or A), or worse, a 9. If it's an ace, you're in real trouble because their other card is likely to be another overcard or a pair.

When you consider the "dirtyness" (where does that come from, by the way?) of the Ace, with the likelihood that you're playing for half the pot or less, I think it becomes a clear fold.

'hoof

[ragedyandy]

Flame me. Tell me I'm an idiot. Tell me you don't understand my questions. Tell me what you think I might be trying to say. Tell me I ask questions that have no answer. Do something other than ignore my posts.

Is what I describe not a common situation? I encounter this type of situation enough to make me wonder am I losing money in the long run or winning money in the long run. The same type of scenario happens when you have free play and flop not top pair with your rags with lots of limpers ... do you call an early position bet if there are plenty of callers to you and you think if you hit one of your 5 outs that your hand will be best?

This question has to have hit home with some of you. I'm sure you run into the same situations all the time. What do you do? How do you think about it? How much time do you spend at the table pondering before you act?

Thanks clovenhoof for your response. I don't think it's such an easy fold. I guess it depends on your opponents. With weak tight players, I'd be inclined to fold. With any other player type, I'd be inclined to call to the river and see what happens.

[Mike]

First, I don't play up here, only read here. To me when EP checks around he missed or is looking for a CR. A CR on the flop makes little sense because of probable draws. EP checking isn't going to make any draw fold. My experience says EP is more likely to be holding big cards rather than a big pair, he holds no Jack. When the turn doesn't spark any apparent interest EP decides his two big cards are good and tries get his stalled momentum moving. IMO, it's a pump it or dump turn for you.

For the second part, I don't think math and weighting applies too much here. With no real action, you can't know where your hand fits in with the rest unless of course you have been at the table long enough what hands are out there.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]
Had I cold-called pre-flop on the button (which is probably what I would have done in this situation) and then it was checked to me on the flop, I'd bet a lot of times, just because. On the turn, it's hard to say, depends on a lot of things. With 9BB there, I'll call a lot of times.

[ QUOTE ]
How do you think about it? How much time do you spend at the table pondering before you act?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think in general terms about the odds. Then I think about whether or not I'll get paid off. Then I think about whether I'll pay someone else off if I make a second-best hand. Then I think about whether or not I can buy the pot if I miss. Then I think about how much calling I've done lately, how much folding I've done, and so forth. Then I think about what the other players might have and how they might react to my call and my river action. Then I do something. All of that usually takes, I dunno, about a second or so.

[Kevin J]

One thing to keep in mind, is that if taking a card off IS wrong.. It has to be more correct from the button than from anywhere else.