A Hand From TOP

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On page 118-119:

(Medium-Sized Pot)

You: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
1 opponent

Board: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You bet and your opponent raises.

I really didn't agree with the advice Sklansky gave on this hand. He recommends calling this bet and bet/folding on the turn unless a heart, 6, 9, or J falls. I'm not sure why he doesn't include 8 as well, which I'm going to assume is a typo.

First off I think I would 3-bet this draw heavy board on the flop. I automatically 3-bet TPTK and TP2K. TP3K is a little closer but there are a ton of draws here.

Next he recommends checking about half the deck on the turn (any heart,6,8,9,J is 21 cards). I think a bet/fold line is much better unless the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or the 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] specifically falls on the turn (I'm not sure what to do then). I'm not sure if he's checking with the intention of calling, but it seems to be the most reasonable line as a raise is spewing and a fold seems pretty weak.

Ok so let's say a heart falls and we check. He either has the flush and we call down costing us 2 BB's, or he's on a straight draw and we just let him take a free card. However, if we bet and he has a flush we can fold to a raise, only costing 1 BB and we prevent a free card if he's on a straight draw.

Basically my point is that we don't know if he's on a straight or flush draw (if either at all) and checking a scare card on the turn doesn't help our situation. We lose the most when behind and win the least when we are ahead.

[TheHammer24]

Even though you have a good made hand, you are behind or close to behind a lot of the time. Your equity is small and the pot isn't huge. Calling and bet/folding a safe card is the optimal line.

If J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits, check folding is correct. If it is checked behind I would bet/fold a safe river.

If a heart falls, you can probably check/fold this. Again even if it didn't hit him you are still behind so much. AT, KT, a set, 72 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Even if you are still ahead, your opponent has numerous amount of redraws on you.

An off color 69 or J may earn a bet fold from me. The problem is, your opponent could a. be ahead, or b. continue with the semi-bluff in which you absolutely do not want to have to play 2 bets here. So check folding is probably safe here also.

[fizzleboink]

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Your equity is small and the pot isn't huge.

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I think you've got pretty good equity against one opponent, and yes the pot isn't huge but it's not small either.

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If J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits, check folding is correct. If it is checked behind I would bet/fold a safe river.


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I'm not sure about this which is why I posted it.

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If a heart falls, you can probably check/fold this. Again even if it didn't hit him you are still behind so much. AT, KT, a set, 72 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Even if you are still ahead, your opponent has numerous amount of redraws on you.


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I think this is weak-tight MUBS. If you are still ahead your opponent can't be "re-"drawing. If I was the opponent and it was HU I'd usually raise the flop with any pair, depending on pre-flop action ofcourse.

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An off color 69 or J may earn a bet fold from me. The problem is, your opponent could a. be ahead, or b. continue with the semi-bluff in which you absolutely do not want to have to play 2 bets here. So check folding is probably safe here also.


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I like the bet fold line because I don't think the opponent would semi-bluff a second time.

[TheHammer24]

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I think you've got pretty good equity against one opponent, and yes the pot isn't huge but it's not small either.

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When you are behind AT and KT, you are way behind. When you are ahead you are often ahead of a draw with many outs. You may have favorable equity but for the reason that this hand is going to be very hard to play OOP I would just call.

What are you going to do if it is capped? Calling, makes the turn bet/fold line an easy decision for us.
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I'm not sure about this which is why I posted it.

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You are behind most of Villians flop raising hands, with the exception of maybe JT when the 6 or 9 falls.

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I think this is weak-tight MUBS. If you are still ahead your opponent can't be "re-"drawing. If I was the opponent and it was HU I'd usually raise the flop with any pair, depending on pre-flop action ofcourse.

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I like the bet fold line because I don't think the opponent would semi-bluff a second time.

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Whats MUBS mean? Also, the term redrawing was incorrect as you pointed out. Raising the flop with any pair is super laggy. I think you are refusing to fold this hand because you have a tendency to lean towards putting your opponent on hands that you beat instead of all possible hands. Your opponent if very often possible to semi-bluff again, especially if he has a high heart in his hand. Even if he doesn't it's going to be super hard to call a river bet if another one falls. You are putting a lot of bets in here with a very vulnerable hand.

[BigBrother]

Interesting post. I have had some difficulty applying TOP examples to the games I'm playing in.

I think it's very read-dependent. For most opponents you are behind or against a huge draw here so I think the advice in TOP is the way to go.

There are many very aggro players out there today, so if you have a read that your villain is one of these you can keep the heat on them, but you still stand to lose a lot when they are ahead or catch up.

I know I've been losing too much $$ on mediocre hands because I am giving too-many players credit for being aggro and not-enough players credit for actually having a hand.

--BB

[fizzleboink]

MUBS is monsters under the bed syndrome. I think you're giving your opponent too much credit for a hand that beats you, and I think that is the focal point of our disagreement.

I think that any pair on the flop HU is a decent to good hand unless the guy raised from EP. Usually this means you're in the BB and are facing a potential blind steal (or you are doing the stealing yourself). I'd certainly raise ANY T in this spot.

I know that this is reading into the hand a bit too much, but personally this is the only way I ever get into the flop HU OOP with this kind of hand. Any pair can have value. Top pair certainly does.

[BigBrother]

Trying to think this through a bit...

AT, ATs, KTs, or 77 are all pretty reasonable hands a player could limp in EP or MP if the table texture is right for it, or raise from MP or LP in a blind-steal attempt at a tight table. Add the big PP's and are you really imagining MUB?

I guess the other side of the coin is what will villain think you are trying to represent? You will be telling him you like your hand, so if he has you beat will he be able to win more from you?

If he has a strong draw he won't fold it, so you gain an extra SB if it doesn't come in, but lose it if he makes his draw.

[TheHammer24]

We are just going to have to agree to disagree because you are wrong here. You are OOP with a fair hand on a draw heavy board. The pot was clearly raised preflop as it's medium sized and your HU. 3 Betting puts you in an uncomfortable position OOP, HU, half the deck hurts you. There's a reason Sklansky advises this.

[fizzleboink]

Yes something like AT is possible. Yes we don't have the nuts right now. But are you seriously suggesting we suddenly check/fold the turn after being raised on the flop and something like a 6 hits?

[fizzleboink]

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half the deck hurts you.

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Half the deck scares me, sort of. How could half the deck hurt me?