O8 Tournament Bubble Hand - Analysis Wanted

CMHPokerMike · #1 08-02-2005, 02:28 AM

$10+$1 Limit O8 tournament. Blinds are 1200/600, down to 29 people with several short stacks. 27 people get beer money.

I'm still struggling with Omaha so I want to get some feedback on this hand and my thoughts on where it went wrong.

Here are my thoughts:

1) I probably should've just folded to begin with. I had a good but not great high hand with no low potential.

1a) I think this may have been a good hand for a blind steal attempt if there hadn't been the one limper in front of me.

2) I'm of two minds on my flop play. On the one hand, I did get my money in with the best hand. (About 58% equity according to cardplayer.com's calculations.) A low was unlikely. On the other hand, there are obvious draws and it's not impossible that the bettor had QQ or (less likely) AA. I could've called the flop bet and been prepared to fold if a scare card came on the turn. This would've completely cripped me for the tournament but should've let me sneak into the money. (The bubble burst one hand after my bust-out.) Scooping would have moved me up to a bit below middle of the pack but I still would have had my work cut out for me to make it past the first money level.

I know I've mixed Omaha Hi/Lo thoughts with tournament theory thoughts here. Any advice on either would be appreciated.

Thanks!

PokerStars (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of 600.
1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls 114 (All-In), MP1 folds, Hero raises, SB raises, Hero calls 892 (All-In).

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9c Ac Jc 9h (High: three of a kind, nines).
SB has As Js 6s Kh (High: flush, ace high).
BB has 6c 8d 2s 4s (Low: 8, 6, 4, 2, A | High: flush, queen high).

anatta · #2 08-02-2005, 05:04 AM

You mentioned that maybe you'd just call the flop and could muck on the turn if a scare card (presumably a spade/low spade), came. I don't see this as an option. You might creep into the money with your crippled stack, maybe not, but remember you have ten outs to beat a flush on the turn and your pot odds would be such that it'd be crazy to muck just for the sake of finishing barely in the money when you could win a big pot and be in the running for a real payday.

This "highish" flop seems like a place to make a stand with bottom set to me. I would expect in desperate times to see the early position players (the blinds here) to make moves with any high type hand or draw, hoping that others yet to act would be going low and might muck. I don't think I am being results oriented with this, that is, I see they both were drawing, but I don't think this is as much the exception as it might seem.

sy_or_bust · #3 08-02-2005, 08:32 AM

There is no reason to limp in with this hand behind one limper. It's the bubble and you have a deceptively weak hand, this is an awful time to play. AJ99 should almost never be played, period.

On the flop, you're committed for all your stack. You don't have enough chips to consider folding bottom set on a high flop when it's essentially heads-up. You're probably against an ace-high flush draw or some sort of straight/flush draw, but that is fine.

DougShrapnel · #4 08-02-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1) I probably ( easily ) should've just folded to begin with. I had a good but not great high hand with no low potential.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
1a) I think this may have been a good hand for a blind steal attempt if there hadn't been the one limper in front of me.

[/ QUOTE ] If you are trying to steal your hand really shouldn't matter much. Addtionally in TPFAP S says that stealing the blinds in oe is increadiably rare. I tend to agree. You should have a good 2 way hand to enter the pot. And at the bubble stage you should have an excellent hand.

[ QUOTE ]
On the one hand, I did get my money in with the best hand. (About 58% equity according to cardplayer.com's calculations.) A low was unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ] You put 2400 of a ~6k in with AJ99ss. That fact that you outfloped some people with realativly little implied odds doesn't help your case much.

But I'll assume that I misclicked and raised preflop and floped bottom set. Your best play is to call. Raising becuase you have the best hand currently is usually not reason enough. Your raise attemps to knock out the 3rd player. Why, try your best to keep him in. Becuase you have a short stack you can get all your chips in when you are a much better favorite against their range of hands on later streets. You are risking actually money for a little extra tourney chips by raising.

The turn was a low spade. The flush is pretty likely. And the bet into you on the turn should solidify the flush. It's a sacre card but DON"T fold. You still have pot odds.

When the river doesn't help you, you fold. Yes I know you only have less than 300 chips, and if chips had actualy cash value the slim chance the someone was a total idiot gives you odds to call. But I'm sqweeking into the money.

Playing this way on the flop, turn and river. Gives up little tourney chips equity, but risks much less actually money equity.

sy_or_bust · #5 08-02-2005, 12:41 PM

Your hand matters a lot for steal attempts in limit poker. Since you rarely outright steal in O/8, any raise is usually for value - you want to play shorthanded, in position, against 1-2 blinds.

As far as the hand goes, I'm supremely confused by your analysis. Hero was all-in on the flop, and the pot was never truly multiway.

DougShrapnel · #6 08-02-2005, 01:11 PM

Ok let me try again, AJ99 isn't a good enough hand to limp behind. Fold it preflop. Don't raise it from the button. It's not good enough for value.

My analysis was off because I thought hero tried to steal and raised preflop. He did not and just limped.

I am also saying that raising on the flop is not the best move. So hero wouldn't go all in until the river and only if he makes his full.

gergery · #7 08-02-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to limp in with this hand behind one limper.

On the flop, you're committed for all your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

DougShrapnel · #8 08-02-2005, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, you're committed for all your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. There is no reason to be committed when folding will get you some cash.

Buzz · #9 08-02-2005, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1) I probably should've just folded to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mike - Yes.

Chipwise, you're in a tough spot, but you have a ways to wait before you have to post again. Before you have to post again, a couple other people very well might bust out of the tournament. If I'm understanding correctly, the blinds are 600 and 1200, the limits are 1200 and 2400, and you started the hand with 4492. Thus your stack is approximately a bit less than four small bets.

With such a small stack, I'd tend not to limp. I'd wait, hoping for a better starting hand, and a better stiuation (no limpers already). Then I'd come in with a raise.

You never want to dribble your chips away - but that's especially true when you have a small stack in a tournament. Wait, and when you get a decent starting hand, make your move. When you only have the equivalent of about four small bets left in your stack, you'll almost surely be committing all your chips if you get a decent flop.

And here you did get a decent flop for that (crummy) starting hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I had a good but not great high hand with no low potential.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a good starting hand. I'm not sure where you got the idea it's a good starting hand. Whoever told you it was a good starting hand gave you bad advice.

[ QUOTE ]
1a) I think this may have been a good hand for a blind steal attempt if there hadn't been the one limper in front of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. You have to expect to possibly get one-on-one with the blind when you make a steal attempt. This is not a good one-on-one hand.

[ QUOTE ]
2) I'm of two minds on my flop play. On the one hand, I did get my money in with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... yes, you have flopped bottom set, which is not generally considered a very good flop. It isn't so much that you're possibly facing AAYZ or QQYZ as that you're possibly facing AQYZ, AXYZ or QXYZ. There is the danger of AAYZ or QQYZ, but honestly, that danger, by itself, is semi-remote.

Any flopped set is probably the leader immediately after the flop. If the game was over after the flop. If there was no turn and not river, I'd bet on any flopped set, even bottom set. But there are those two pesky cards yet to come.

You're more likely to be up against AQYZ than AAYZ or QQYZ - and although you're ahead after the flop, there's the danger of the board pairing with aces or queens.

And there's also a possibility of being up against AXYZ or QXYZ. You're way ahead, of course, but there's the danger of another ace or queen plus another X, Y, or Z - and in that case you get beaten by a runner-runner higher full house. An opponent with AXYZ or QXYZ is probably drawing for something else immediately after the flop (at least he/she should be!) - but whatever. And if the board doesn't pair, a straight and/or flush usually is possible.

The end result is flopped bottom sets, unless you can play them fast and greatly narrow the field (and maybe even then) don't fare well.

You did play your hand fast after the flop - and things simply didn't work out for you. It happens. But, at any rate, you did play well after the flop, in my humble opinion.

I think flopped bottom set hands and flopped top and bottom two pairs hands are similar in the way they should be played (or not played). There was a recent thread involving Phat Mack that has some guidelines for playing flopped top and bottom two pairs.... One of the guidelines involved not tending to play flopped top and bottom two pairs when two cards of the flop are of the same suit (as here).

I might (probably would) dump this hand to a bet after this flop in a ring game - and if I did, it would be partly because of the flop having two cards of the same suit (but not my suit). However, since you have a short stack, short-stack-tournament considerations override these guidelines.

At any rate, although I think you should have folded before the flop - I do think you played correctly after the flop.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

gergery · #10 08-02-2005, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, you're committed for all your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. There is no reason to be committed when folding will get you some cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not after cash, you are after expected value. And the combination of being shortstacked and having the best hand means you should be putting chips in.