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#1
11-10-2005, 06:51 PM
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how often can you win (general theory ?)
So, mostly this question is for middle or late stages in relation to stack sizes, but i suppose it could apply to early stages as well.
anyways, with N players left (say 5-25% of the starting field), later in the tourney, with blinds large, but not stupidly large such that the average stack is red zone, how often can a good (say 100% ROI) player win when they have an average stack? also, with N players, how big of a stack does a very good player need in order to win 1/N times? i know of course it will depend a lot on how many players are left, as a very good HU player probably can't win much more than 60% when the stacks are equal and the blinds are fairly large. so thats only 120% of if he won only his share. but say there's 50 players left out of 500. a very good player with an average stack will certainly win more than 1/50 * 120% = 1/42. there must be some equation that takes into account players left that will give a solution to how often you win. does anybody know of such an equation that will at least approximate this? 
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#2
11-10-2005, 06:56 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
well if you're an average stack, just pretend it's a whole new tournament.
so if there 50 people left, and you're average, and you're a 100% ROI player, that means your 2x as good average, so you could probaly estimate that you'd win 1/25 times.
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#3
11-10-2005, 07:00 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
[ QUOTE ]
so if there 50 people left, and you're average, and you're a 100% ROI player, that means your 2x as good average, so you could probaly estimate that you'd win 1/25 times. [/ QUOTE ] This only holds in a WTA scenario. In a normal structure, you can have a 100% ROI while being lousy at getting to the final table. (I seem to be a perfect example of this.) I'm still working on my model for this. Will be posting a new version soon.
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#4
11-10-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
i don't think its that simple though. b/c later stages when the blinds are larger play slightly differently. also, common sense says this can't be the case. look at when its HU. obviously if you're a 100% ROI player, you won't win twice average, or 100% of the time heads up. it must depend on the number left to some extent.
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#5
11-10-2005, 07:04 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think its that simple though. b/c later stages when the blinds are larger play slightly differently. also, common sense says this can't be the case. look at when its HU. obviously if you're a 100% ROI player, you won't win twice average, or 100% of the time heads up. it must depend on the number left to some extent. [/ QUOTE ] That's becuase you can't be a 100% ROI player heads up.. ok, a better way to phrase it, if you're twicee as good as average, then you'll win twice as much. So if there are 50 players left, you'll win twice as much as everyone else (slightly less than 2/50). And if you were heads up you'd win twice as often as he would. (66%)
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#6
11-10-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
no. i was just using a 100% ROI player as an example of a very good player. to be that good you must be an all around good player. good full table, SH, and HU. or at least the assumptoin in my example is of an all around solid player in every area.
also, i don't think its even that simple as you state it for the beginning of a tourney. it would be if it were winner takes all, but in a normal tourney a 100% ROI player should almost certainly win more than 2x his share. you should finish 1st more than 2nd, 2nd more than 3rd, ect...
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#7
11-10-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
a 100% roi player should have more than 100% roi...funny stuff...i know of one well known player and author who spends about half a million a year on tournament entries and hasnt broke even in 3 years i guarantee hes 100% roi... talking out my ass portion of post: i virtually guarantee the best FULL TIME TOURNAMENT player (52 5k+ events a year) in the world could go on a 5 year streak without ever placing 1st.
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#9
11-10-2005, 08:29 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
[ QUOTE ]
i know of one well known player and author who spends about half a million a year on tournament entries and hasnt broke even in 3 years i guarantee hes 100% roi [/ QUOTE ] Huh? What proof do you base the idea that a player who's negative over a 3 year span is a 100% ROI player? Also, nice guarantee... just mosey on over to the STT forum to have a little chat about variance. The best player in the world could easily have a 250 tourney streak of no firsts. Hell, he could easily have a 250 tourney streak of no final tables. Variance is a bitch, and this post is really confusing.
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#10
11-10-2005, 08:39 PM
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Re: how often can you win (general theory ?)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i know of one well known player and author who spends about half a million a year on tournament entries and hasnt broke even in 3 years i guarantee hes 100% roi [/ QUOTE ] Huh? What proof do you base the idea that a player who's negative over a 3 year span is a 100% ROI player? Also, nice guarantee... just mosey on over to the STT forum to have a little chat about variance. The best player in the world could easily have a 250 tourney streak of no firsts. Hell, he could easily have a 250 tourney streak of no final tables. Variance is a bitch, and this post is really confusing. [/ QUOTE ] dont sell yourself short. you understood it fine...wanna know your reading comprehension grade??.......F+ CLICK!
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