Pocket Pair Numbers

[Aaron W.]

I took these numbers off of my GFI computations. I think they illustrate how good pocket pairs really are (this is somewhat in response to this post, but it's generally the case that lots of micro players are far too passive with these hands preflop.)

Probability of [flopping an overpair or better] / [One overcard] == Total

AA - 100% / 0% == 100%
KK - 79.3% / 14.5% == 93.8%
QQ - 62.2% / 24.0% == 86.2%
JJ - 48.2% / 29.1% == 77.3%
TT - 37.1% / 27.5% == 64.6%
99 - 28.5% / 19.7% == 48.2%
88 - 22.1% / 17.3% == 39.4%
77 - 17.6% / 13.9% == 31.5%
66 - 14.6% / 10.1% == 24.7%
55 - 12.9% / 6.3% == 19.2%
44 - 12.0% / 3.0% == 15.0%
33 - 11.8% / 0.7% == 12.5%
22 - 11.8% / 0% == 11.8%

What does this really mean? If you are able to play a pocket pair profitably with a single overcard (which is generally true if you raise preflop), then even down to 66, you will flop a profitable hand more than about 25% of the time. If you're playing at a weak-tight table or even against someone who is loose preflop, this value goes way up! (Read through this post if you have doubts. And if you still have doubts, bring them to the table for discussion! That's how we all get better.)

[SCfuji]

any chance you could tweak the numbers for 6 max or will the numbers be relatively the same.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
any chance you could tweak the numbers for 6 max or will the numbers be relatively the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

Numbers will be the same, they're only based on your hand and the board, not other opponents.

[SCfuji]

i guess i was thinking more along the lines of... since there will be fewer opponents, the likelihood that one of them holds a matching overcard on the board decreases.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
i guess i was thinking more along the lines of... since there will be fewer opponents, the likelihood that one of them holds a matching overcard on the board decreases.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a different case all together. You still have overcards, but it's less likely they hit someone. But it's a really good question. gogo probability forum.

EDIT: It's probably 40% less likely to hit your oppenents because there are 40% less players...hmmm...what is the likelyhood of hitting at a full table.