5 handed Final table interesting hand--Whats your line?

DonButtons · #1 05-31-2005, 01:04 AM

Heres the prize pool-Party $33 Rebuys tourney
1st-$9000
2nd-$6000
3rd-$3600
4th-$2500
5th-$2000
etc....all rounded

600 person MTT, 5 handed...

Chip counts

Seat 1: vitalis111 ( $574078 )
Seat 2: gappie2 ( $350840 ) (Hero)
Seat 4: brewhah ( $85240 )
Seat 6: Doh_nuts21 ( $208768 )
Seat 8: paulwtby ( $269574 )

Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: gappie2 ( $350840 ) ( Hero)
Seat 8: paulwtby ( $269574 )
Seat 6: Doh_nuts21 ( $208768 )
Seat 1: vitalis111 ( $574078 )
Seat 4: brewhah ( $85240 )
Trny:12660551 Level:21
Blinds (10000/20000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gappie2 [ 8h Th ]
paulwtby folds.
vitalis111 calls [20000].
gappie2 calls [20000].
brewhah folds.
Doh_nuts21 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, Ah, 6h ]
Doh_nuts21 checks.
vitalis111 bets [189600].
gappie2 ?????

Whats my line here, lets discuss as it seems a couple people have different opinions.
Seat 1 is kind of fishy, and likes to limp a lot from ep and specially mp, has shown down only A2s from mp when he limped before and bluffed in this pot.

Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: gappie2 ( $117920 )
Seat 5: dryan8677 ( $108210 )
Seat 8: paulwtby ( $243925 )
Seat 6: Doh_nuts21 ( $381021 )
Seat 10: SHARK46 ( $103749 )
Seat 1: vitalis111 ( $335466 )
Seat 4: brewhah ( $80818 )
Seat 9: mrdart ( $117391 )
Trny:12660551 Level:20
Blinds (7500/15000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gappie2 [ 6s 6c ]
Doh_nuts21 folds.
paulwtby folds.
mrdart folds.
SHARK46 folds.
vitalis111 calls [15000].
gappie2 calls [15000].
brewhah calls [7500].
dryan8677 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, Ks, 4d ]
brewhah checks.
dryan8677 checks.
vitalis111 bets [44100].
gappie2 folds.
brewhah is all-In [65818]
dryan8677 folds.
vitalis111 calls [21718].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
vitalis111 shows [ 2c, Ac ] a pair of kings.
brewhah shows [ 5h, Kh ] three of a kind, kings.
brewhah wins 191636 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, kings.
**Not quite sure about this hand either, but until this hand, he never shown down a hand he limped with, so I didnt really know what his range might be and didnt feel like pushing into 77.

TheTimeIsUp · #2 05-31-2005, 01:08 AM

Against any Ace, you are a 50.1% favorite. And I think that this is bets case scenario. Even though it could be +EV (matters what the short stack has), you should fold this. Don't risk your MTT life on what you know is a coin.

adanthar · #3 05-31-2005, 01:09 AM

If you had him covered or he was *slightly* less fishier, this'd be much easier, but as it stands, this is a flip or a set, not a pure bluff with an ace on the board. I think I fold.

CardSharpCook · #4 05-31-2005, 01:11 AM

the limp suggests, which may be bad no ace. I'm thinking he likely has a ten which probably outkicks yours. On the other hand, it may be a stone cold bluff because he is encouraged by the PF action (he can be reasonably sure no one has an ace). IF he has an ace, you are winning with your 14 outs. If he has a ten that outkicks your, you have 12 outs and a pot big enough to justify a call/push. However, you are winning here 15-25% of the time I think. This is an easy push for me. Am I missing something?

CSC

CardSharpCook · #5 05-31-2005, 01:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had him covered or he was *slightly* less fishier, this'd be much easier, but as it stands, this is a flip or a set, not a pure bluff with an ace on the board. I think I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So because he bet 190K at 70K, it has to be an ace? You don't think that it is easier to bluff an ace board (especially with no raises PF)? Even on a two-flush board, do you see him playing a set this fast? He has shown that he is capable of making final table bluffs, to me, on a board like this, that increases the bluff potential from the standard 10%. I AM worried about him having a better ten, but I think you are winning here to make it an easy call. Add to that the 70K in the pot and the (reasonable) worst-case senario of 12 outs (a set of AA is highly unlikely, TT would mean he has the cases tens, and 66 has 12 combinations). I don't see folding this.....

TheTimeIsUp · #6 05-31-2005, 01:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the limp suggests, which may be bad no ace. I'm thinking he likely has a ten which probably outkicks yours. On the other hand, it may be a stone cold bluff because he is encouraged by the PF action (he can be reasonably sure no one has an ace). IF he has an ace, you are winning with your 14 outs. If he has a ten that outkicks your, you have 12 outs and a pot big enough to justify a call/push. However, you are winning here 15-25% of the time I think. This is an easy push for me. Am I missing something?

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? I think it is a given that he has atleast an Ace, possibly a set, 2 pair. It is nearly given that he is 50/50, at best. You are willing to risk your MTT on a coin?

adanthar · #7 05-31-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So because he bet 190K at 70K, it has to be an ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. But if he has a ten, it's also a flip (unless it's exactly T7s, every other ten beats ours), he's probably very capable of playing A6/AT this way, and fish go 'hey, I have a set, let's bet it big' all the time.

What do you put him on that Hero beats 60/40 or higher to balance out the 2 pairs+, a six? A pure bluff in a 3 way pot with an ace showing? Come on, this is a flip at best.

Lloyd · #8 05-31-2005, 01:26 AM

Nice to see you're still making final tables!

Hand 1 is VERY close. I did a quick $EV calculation putting him on a small to middle Ace (and not A6). I also assumed no 66. It's just an assumption but I'm guessing he doesn't limp with AA, AK-AT, or T6. Against that range you're essentially a coin flip. The $EV of calling is *slightly* higher than folding - about $200 (6.5% higher) according to my calculations and assuming your % of the prize pool is proportionate to your % of chips in play. I'm also assuming that all of your chips will go in the middle if you push as his huge overbet pot commits him and even if he loses he still has quite a few chips left.

I think a lesser player should call here. I think you, versus someone who you classify as kind of fishy, can fold although it's close. I say this simply because I think your ability to play better than others makes your equity percentage greater than your % of chips in play.

I think Hand 2 is played just fine (limp folding) as long as you think there's a decent chance you'll be able to limp without getting raised behind you. You just have enough chips to make playing for set value okay.

DonButtons · #9 05-31-2005, 01:26 AM

50/50 to win 700k, then I pwn them all to victory with my donkey style hands like this. heeehaw

#Game No : 2130138255
***** Hand History for Game 2130138255 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:12660551 Level:21 Blinds (10000/20000) - Monday, May 30, 18:01:24 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(349485) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: gappie2 ( $270840 )
Seat 8: paulwtby ( $323958 )
Seat 6: Doh_nuts21 ( $42192 )
Seat 1: vitalis111 ( $694078 )
Seat 4: brewhah ( $157432 )
Trny:12660551 Level:21
Blinds (10000/20000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to gappie2 [ 9c 7d ]
brewhah folds.
Doh_nuts21 folds.
paulwtby folds.
vitalis111 calls [10000].
gappie2 raises [50000].
vitalis111 calls [50000].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, Ad, 3c ]
vitalis111 bets [20000].
JJProdigy: GAPPIE!
gappie2 raises [120000].
vitalis111 folds.
gappie2 does not show cards.
gappie2 wins 280000 chips
Game #2130143662 starts.

TheTimeIsUp · #10 05-31-2005, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, Ad, 3c ]
vitalis111 bets [20000].
JJProdigy: GAPPIE!
gappie2 raises [120000].
vitalis111 folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

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