NL600...is this the overbet we're supposed to do?

Garland · #1 12-11-2005, 10:04 PM

Opponent stats:

VP$IP = 15.31 and Pre-flop Raise % = 3.51 over 1339 hands.

Garland

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 ($573)
MP1 ($1089.75)
MP2 ($324.70)
MP3 ($385.30)
CO ($576)
Button ($221)
SB ($376)
BB ($573.35)
Garland ($598.05)

Preflop: Garland is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
Garland calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6, 6 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($21) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Garland bets $14, UTG+1 calls $14, BB folds.

Turn: ($49) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Garland checks, UTG+1 bets $35, Garland raises to $105, UTG+1 calls $70.

River: ($259) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Garland bets $473.05 (All-In)

BobboFitos · #2 12-11-2005, 10:05 PM

check raise

ClaytonN · #3 12-11-2005, 10:14 PM

hard to make a good read without any good notes on his post flop aggression. any ideas?

ninjia3x · #4 12-13-2005, 01:12 AM

Just wondering, can you see a 9 checking behind Garland? He doesn't have a whole lot to value bet here.

scdavis0 · #5 12-13-2005, 01:35 AM

I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

kipin · #6 12-13-2005, 04:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak....

einbert · #7 12-13-2005, 06:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're very weak tight but you can't possibly be serious here.

scdavis0 · #8 12-13-2005, 12:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind with a 9.. and I wouldn't call this huge overbet with a 9 either

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're very weak tight but you can't possibly be serious here.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the guy goes crazy on a J996 turn and then checks when the board double pairs on the river, what hand am I supposed to be getting value from with just a naked 9? I'm not going to check because I know he has quads or jacks full or J9, but because I'm going to put him squarely on either a bluff, the same hand, or a better hand.

Marlow · #9 12-13-2005, 01:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
check raise

[/ QUOTE ]

At first I liked the overbet lead, but now I see that this is winning so much more money over the longrun. A 9 or JJ is all-in no matter what the line. Any non-9 has a shot to donate if checked to.

vnh

Garland · #10 12-12-2005, 10:38 PM

I messed this up.

I initially put villain on a single 9. However my thinking is incorrect: His stats absolutely do not support him having any hand UTG with a single 9. Way too tight for it.

In addition, if he had a 9, he'd be sure to bet it on the river, where I raise all-in. If he has a busted draw with big cards, I give him a chance to bluff. The same results will happen if he happened to have JJ.

Bobbo got it right and nothing more needed to be said. I should have check-raised, clear as day.

Results: Villain thinks for a few seconds and folds.

Garland