Say you were a bookie....

[Page Jacobson]

[ QUOTE ]
Or am I missing soemthing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your missing the juice.

Lets say your client makes 200 $100 bets during the season. He wins 95 and loses 105 for 47% win rate. He loses $2050 for the year. You fade all his picks and win 105 and lose 95 for a 52% win rate. You lose $450 for the year.

[Mr_J]

"You fade all his picks and win 105 and lose 95 for a 52% win rate. You lose $450 for the year."

Actually you profit slightly. You'd win 52.5%, where breakeven vs -110 is 52.4%. Anyway, he'd be betting vs shopped lines.

Also remember that fading his bets will also increase your risk.

If teh gambler hits 47%, you're already winning 53% at +110 for an 11.3% advantage. If you fade him and hit 53%, say at an average of -105, you're making 3.5% on the fade bets, so you should obviously bet significantly less on the fades than the bets you accept from the gambler.

[Page Jacobson]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually you profit slightly

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I made an error in my math. You end up winning $50.

Your other points are well taken too.

[ohnonotthat]

Huh ?