5/10 NL

[9cao]

Preflop is ok, but on the flop you have a maximum of 6 outs, and a decent chance of 3 outs or 0 outs, given that the raise came from UTG. If this is 10-handed and you read UTG as tight ABC players this raise would probably mean AA-JJ, AK. You have AK, so reduces the chances of AA, KK, or AK, but I would still assume you have something like only 4.5 outs on average.

When you consider that if Villain has QQ or JJ you might not get paid when you hit or the reverse implied odds of spiking a K against AA you should probably fold the flop.

The way it is played you will see AA at least 2/5 of the time, AK 2/5 of the time, and something else (QQ, KK, something random) 1/5 of the time. So I think you win 15% of the time, chop 40% of the time, lose 45% of the time.

That puts the EV of a call at about $60. I call but my estimates might be way off.

[Woolygimp]

fold the flop