Difficult AQ hand...maybe?

[Heimdal]

Ok. I’m not sure if this is what you are talking about but I will try. If hero pots the flop there will be $1K in the pot with $1100 left.
With 14 outs hero’s equity is 32% if he goes all in and MP calls = autopush. Let’s be more pessimistic. Sometimes hero will be drawing dead, sometimes a Q will be good. 11 outs on average. 25% equity when called.

Using this formula:

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %) )

E = $3200 * 0.25 = $800
F = (1100-800) / (2100-800) = 23 %

If MP folds 23 % hero breaks even. Still an easy decision with AZK’s read.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I really don't think the cr is viable. I mean I think people feel much more committed to a hand after they put some money in on the turn, get cred, and then realize, well i'm probably beat oh well but I already put so much in and I only have so little left. Whereas the bet flop, bet turn is like ok, I know my 66 is no good, I'll lay down.

Eh?

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i definitely prefer a c/r here. If he checks behind that isnt bad either. Also if he is calling your c/r here w/ 66 often, then i simply c/f (depending on his bet) the turn. Possibly c/c.

[ML4L]

Hey AZK,

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, you think? $300 is that much more convincing than $200 for a pair to lay down to an overpair vs overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really what I was getting at...

ML4L

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
You are missing the point ML is making, it's not about making him fold it's about your opponents stack size. Figure # of likely outs, size of pot if you pot it and he calls and look at where you'll be at the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

ML4L

[AZK]

Yeah, I'm a [censored], Thanks IHateCats and ML4L. Good points about flop bet.

[edge]

Stack size management is something I should really work on. I just fire standard-proportioned bets at every opportunity.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack size management is something I should really work on. I just fire standard-proportioned bets at every opportunity.

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Same. It'd be excellent if IHC and ML4L could expand on the subject sometime.

[IHateCats]

I'm most concerned about my bet size in situations where I'm out of position with either a made hand on a draw heavy board or a very strong drawing hand that I'm willing to play aggressively like this one. What you have to do is look at stack sizes and think ahead about where the different bet sizes will leave you in terms of pot size and implied odds. It's somewhat of a disaster to do what AZK's line did, create a pot that leaves you out of position on the turn with a good drawing hand (more than 11 outs) but with a pot size that's less than 2/3 the remaining stacks, especially since in this case your big pair outs will pretty much ensure you won't get paid off on the river for his remaning stack if that A or Q comes, in this case I suspect you are much more likely to get called with a marginal hand if the 3rd spade comes which is different than usual with flush draws. Of course it might kill you if it's what hits his fh but so be it. Much, much better to maximize your fold equity and play it aggressively from the begining and create a situation on the turn where your decision on the river doesn't rely on an assumption of a ridiculously high fold equity to be correct if you are correct in assuming he has something like 88, especially since you were picked off a few hands ago for 3 barrel bluffing.

With a made hand, it's the reverse issue, you absolutely don't want to leave yourself pot stuck to a point where you have to pay off a draw but gave them solid implied odds to draw because the pot size on the river will leave you with less than 35% of the pot size in your stack. You have to be thinking about manipulating the pot size right from your inital preflop bet, especially if you think you're likely to be HU on the flop and your opponents have less than 150x the BB because an aggressively bet pot can grow to cover that quite quickly. I think you'll find that most of the players who maintain a 3 PTBB or better long term win rate at 10/20 or above are quite cognizant of this and bet accordingly.

[IHateCats]

That's why ML4L is The Man.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm most concerned about my bet size in situations where I'm out of position with either a made hand on a draw heavy board or a very strong drawing hand that I'm willing to play aggressively like this one. What you have to do is look at stack sizes and think ahead about where the different bet sizes will leave you in terms of pot size and implied odds. It's somewhat of a disaster to do what AZK's line did, create a pot that leaves you out of position on the turn with a good drawing hand (more than 11 outs) but with a pot size that's less than 2/3 the remaining stacks, especially since in this case your big pair outs will pretty much ensure you won't get paid off on the river for his remaning stack if that A or Q comes, in this case I suspect you are much more likely to get called with a marginal hand if the 3rd spade comes which is different than usual with flush draws. Of course it might kill you if it's what hits his fh but so be it. Much, much better to maximize your fold equity and play it aggressively from the begining and create a situation on the turn where your decision on the river doesn't rely on an assumption of a ridiculously high fold equity to be correct if you are correct in assuming he has something like 88, especially since you were picked off a few hands ago for 3 barrel bluffing.

With a made hand, it's the reverse issue, you absolutely don't want to leave yourself pot stuck to a point where you have to pay off a draw but gave them solid implied odds to draw because the pot size on the river will leave you with less than 35% of the pot size in your stack. You have to be thinking about manipulating the pot size right from your inital preflop bet, especially if you think you're likely to be HU on the flop and your opponents have less than 150x the BB because an aggressively bet pot can grow to cover that quite quickly. I think you'll find that most of the players who maintain a 3 PTBB or better long term win rate at 10/20 or above are quite cognizant of this and bet accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur.

ML4L