Bad play or bad beat?

[AJo Go All In]

wow cris you are so unlucky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[heyrocker]

[ QUOTE ]
if he wants to draw let him draw for all his chips. becuase once you check, youre giving up on the hand. hes going to bet his position and probably assume his hand is good anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jaydoggie has succintly said what it took me four paragraphs to say. The very very last thing in the world you want to let anyone do in this situation is get another card for free or for cheap.

[CrisBrown]

Hi jay,

I don't think it was a question of checking -- there was no way I was going to check bottom two pair vs. all of those draws -- but whether I should've pushed in vs. his reraise.

It's an interesting and difficult situation. If I simply call his reraise, there are so many cards at the flop that can run me off this hand, even if he doesn't have a better hand than mine at that point. In this situation, sure, the 2s was a raggy card that was obviously a blank, and if I'd waited until then to push, he might well have folded a mere top pair. On the other hand, he might not have.

Cris

[chesspain]

Let's play nice, everyone...I mean, don't make me stop this car!

[t_perkin]

Can you really that confidently say that he does not have 88 or 55?

This to me seems like an incredibly good read for this early in the tournament.

I have never come across a player who is willing to raise JJ in MP at this stage of a tournament who is not willing to even consider limping with 88 or 55.

or do you just mean it is unlikely because there are only two 8s and 5s left?

I am always wary of low 2pair. But they can knock down a lot of hands. If you are going to play them then you have to move in on the flop. You absolutely do not want to be giving any cards away, this is far to weak a hand. The list of scare cards is endless: Any club, 4, 7, 9, T, Q, A (I would not rate K as a big scare card here - lol). Basically, well over half the pack is going to casue you to have to be wary on the turn, especially in EP.

Get your money in and pray, or fold to his raise.


Tim

[ohkanada]

Don't play results.

Well played!

Ken Poklitar

[jaydoggie]

you must have misread what i typed.

by only calling youre nto making him pay. its just as good as checking. sure the turn was a 2. but what if it was an A? then would you moved in?
what if it was a Q? then would you have moved in, or check folded?
what if it was a club? would you have folded?

bet, calling. is letting him dictate the price of the turn. thus youre not making him pay for it.

there are FAR too many scare cards for his possible hands. however youre still a 2-1 or better favorite against MOST of his potential hands. the move is push. not call.

[Ulysses]

The reason to push here in these SNGs is because you'll get called by hands like KJ or a flush draw. Good hand, good push.

[triplc]

Yes, there are a lot of scare cards, but all of them can't help this guy. If he was drawing, Cris already forced him into a mistake by betting 100 out. He raises to 240...if you are convinced you have the best hand why not simply reraise to an amount which destroys the odds again...that doesn't have to be all-in, does it?

It turns out she was a huge favorite against KJ, but we don't know that he has KJ when he raises and that we are a huge favorite, so I'm not sure I want to risk all of my chips here. How about a raise to 600?

If the read is so great that you can say "he has KJ or AJ and I have him at 3-1", sure, push in. But do we ever get that great a read?

I'm not saying that pushing in was bad (I think it was a good option), but I am trying to win this pot now, and I think I can do it with the best hand without pushing in this early in the SnG when the money is still reasonable deep.

Cris hit the dream (good flop), nightmare (raised back), dream (called by a huge underdog), nightmare (bad beat) scenario. This hand had more twists than Chubby Checker, but I still think I would try to win this pot on the flop without risking all of my chips.

All we can do is try to make our opponents make mistakes. Her opponent made two big ones and still knocked her out of the tourney. Wouldn't it have been better to save a few of those chips for later, and give yourself another chance?

[t_perkin]

Yes you want to win it on the flop, and if not you want your opponent to make the biggeest mistake that he can.

Pushing all in here means calling is a bigger mistake then if he were to just call 600.

Plus, what do you do when one of those scare cards hits? bet out again? push in? fold?

none of them are great options. Make him pay as much as possible to draw.

tim