July - My poker month from hell

[Xiphoid]

My month started at 85k hands on the graph and I guess you can see why I'm making this post. Never, in my few years of playing have I ever experienced a month like this and I'm wondering if it's something that I should be worried about (well, I'm already worried and pretty pissed about it, but I don't know whether to discount it as variance or my playing taking a turn for the worse). Note that I have not made any drastic changes to my PF or post-flop play in the past month.

In June, I had the best month of my career, going 2.7BB/100 over 13,000 hands of 2-4. July begins and although it starts off slowly, I still have faith that I can pull off my monthly goal of $1000 to pay most of my bills (no, I'm not dependent on this money). Half-way through the month I find myself at a deficit and tell myself that I can still pull through and would be happy with even half of my goal. Well, we're at the last day of the month and I'm finding myself down 240BB over 14,000 hands.

This is just shocking to me because I've never had a downward trend in my graph over 10,000 hands. I also feel like I'm improving my game incrementally every day by reading and posting here.

Although it may be suggested that I have tilted through the month, I do not believe this is the case. My VP$IP for the past three months has been 16%; however, this month, it has fallen two full percentage points, which is a pretty drastic increase (i.e. I have not grown LAGgy). I attribute this to cold-cards (is this possible over a run of 10,000 hands?), not getting much from my winners, and losing a majority of my coin flips.

A comparison of the two months:

Total Hands: 12,400 (June) 14,000 (July)
VP$IP: 15.95 (June) 13.88 (July)
Won $ WSF%: 30.24 (June) 27.35 (July)
BB/100: 2.65 (June) -1.63 (July)
Went to SD: 26.41 (June) 25.59 (July)
Won $ at SD: 58.91 (June) 55.57 (July)
PF Raise: 8.45 (June) 7.63 (July)

What a way to end the first 100k hands of my career... I will likely take the first week off of August to read SSH again and just to cool down.

For those of you who have logged thousands of hands a month over a period of a year, have you experienced a month(s) such as this in your career and should I be worried? I continue telling myself that every new hand is an independent event that holds absolutely no memory of the last hand or the last 10,000 hands and given this fact, I continue to be on the wrong end of the stick (just because I've been losing a lot lately does not mean that it is time for my graph to magically turn upwards in my next session).

Thanks in advance for any input. At least I got a big promotion at work this past week, which will definitely make up for those lost BB. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[flair1239]

I look at this and giggle. July 8th I was up 130BB for the month. By July 16th I was down 400BB for the month. As of of today I am only down 80BB for the month.

So I really don't know what to think about this month. Don't worry about the swings. Worry about your mechanics.

[Emperor]

Over 100K hands I am suprised you haven't seen this kind of swing before.

In my opinion the best way to deal with it is to play more hands per month.

Personally I try to shoot for 30K hands per month because I have never had a downswing last that long.

I play 5/10 recently and if I am up $3K or more in any one month, then I take shots at 10/20. If I drop more than $1000 at any level then I move one level down. This surely hurts my earn rate, but I'm sure it helps my BankRoll variance.

[SmileyEH]

You need to loosen up and play more aggressively.

-SmileyEH

[Xiphoid]

I guess I haven't hit a floor this low before in my career. I've had numerous 150BB losses, but never nearing 300BB over 14,000 hands.

I'd like to raise my VP$IP to 18%, but I want to do it gradually, especially since I've been on a horrible run. This month's 14% was just an anomaly due to cold cards.

My aggression numbers are all well above the numbers in the PT stats thread:

Flop: 3.34 (2.53-3.17 range in thread)
Turn: 3.24 (2.64-2.99 range in thread)
River: 2.83 (1.98-2.22 range in thread)

It looks like I may be taking the TAG style too far and playing too aggressively.

Next month I'll try to hit 20k hands and if I'm still having problems, then I'll start to worry more.

[meep_42]

The fewer hands you play, the higher your aggression will look (because the hands you play will be stronger - you'll have initiative more and need to make more protection/continuation bets).

My aggression is probably the lowest among regular posters, but i'm also one of the loosest of the mediocre crowd.

-d

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
July 8th I was up 130BB for the month. By July 16th I was down 400BB for the month.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had a -530BB swing...?

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
July 8th I was up 130BB for the month. By July 16th I was down 400BB for the month.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had a -530BB swing...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes somewhere in there.

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never had a downward trend in my graph over 10,000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Consider yourself very lucky. Downward trends can last 20K hands, and it is normal to see several of up to 200 BB (possibly more) in a 100K sample.

[ QUOTE ]
this month, it has fallen two full percentage points

[/ QUOTE ]

You are running bad. Don't let that stop you analysiing your play though, that always helps (though it is entirely typical we only do this when running bad).

[ QUOTE ]
What a way to end the first 100k hands of my career

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There is no "end" until you stop playing. 100K "landmark" means nothing statistically speaking. Downswings are not tidy nor convenient; they happen and are part of your overall graph. Just because this happens to have arrived as you reach 100K hands is also completely meaningless unless you have made some strategic changes to your game.

Just this month I was having great results (winning at 3.78 BB/100) and on the LAST day of play I dropped $700 to end up on 1.85 BB/100. Still a good month and I played well (though not perfectly).

Stop worrying and play through this, it happens to everyone. You have been lucky in not having to face such a run sooner, death and taxes etc.

hey guys.... i see all these stats for showdown stats and all that and i'm just wondering where you guys got them ( pokertracker, etc.).. I have pokerspy right now and its not as in depth as some of the things you guys mention.. any help on everything you use would be greatly appreciated. thank you!