Call or fold - $3/6 7CS

[Andy B]

You've seen fifteen cards. If you assume that an Ace or a Six will win for you, you have five good cards out of 37 unseen cards. It is more than 6:1 against making your hand on the next card, and the pot is offering 4:1. Each succeeding bet will shorten your odds further still. My math may be off some, but I make it as about a 36% chance that you will make Aces-up or better by the river. I am ignoring the chance that you can catch running Sevens. This a little less than 2:1, and if you call bets on fifth and sixth, you'll be getting about 2:1. Of course, you won't win every time you hit, and you can't raise except in the rare case where you make a full house.

The problem is that it is still entirely possible that the other guy started with a pair of Tens. It's probably more likely that he has a pocket pair, but trips are not so overwhelmingly unlikely as you think. Pocket Nines is probably in his realm of possible hands. There are six ways he can have pocket Nines, and thirty-something ways he can have split Tens. You can probably eliminate a lot of other hands if you know the way he plays. With a big pocket pair, he probably raises on third street. With pocket Treys or Eights, he probably folds on third street, because his hand is dead. I don't know about you, but when I'm last to act, I'll limp in with a split pair of Tens with one out and just see what happens about every time. There is a very real threat that he has trips on fifth street, and for this reason, you just have to fold. Raising is insane.

[Andy B]

I like the bet on fourth. There's a pretty good chance that your opponents don't have much, and even if you don't buy the pot on fourth, you may set yourself up to buy it on fifth. I would bet in this spot just about every time.