Stuck in limbo

Greg J · #1 12-04-2004, 07:44 PM

Well I have contemplating the move up to 1/2 for a while now. The only problem is I am concerned about the stat that matters most: bb/100 hands. I have profited nicely of bonus whoring, but my my bb/100 hands is an anemic 2.08. This is only over about 16k hands, so this might not mean much, but then again it might. I feel I should be crushing .5/1 for 4 per 100.

I'm not sure that I'm asking for reasurance, or guidance, or what. I guess to make this post meaningful I will ask a general question: you guys that moved up to 1/2, what was yr winrate and number of hands?

.5/1 has been a real variance rollrcoaster. I have never seen so many downswings -- over the course of playing .5/1 I have seen downswings of 190, 100, 120, 120, and most recently 150. Upswings: 120, 100, 120, and most recently 120. I never really experienced this at the nanolimits. I am getting psychological whiplash. I am not sure how much of this to expect in the future, or how "normal" this sort of wildness is. I will say this: I handle each downswing better than the last, but they are seriously cutting into my winnings. It's like a few seasons ago when the NY Giants went 9-7, starting 4-0 and ending 5-0, the coach said, "if it weren't for that 7 game losing streak we would be undefeated."

Comments, thoughts, ideas re: this rant with some questions interspersed?

radek2166 · #2 12-04-2004, 07:54 PM

I'd move up. I tried .5/1 at party. I ened up on tilt every session. I figured I had the BR for 1/2 so I played 1/2 and am beating it for 3BB/100

Greg J · #3 12-04-2004, 07:58 PM

Well I do have my share of tilt... but regardless, if I am not CRUSHING .5/1 I'm wondering about a move up. What was yr winrate if you don't mind me asking. (You can pm if you don't wanna say publicly.)

droolie · #4 12-04-2004, 07:59 PM

If you feel like moving up and have the BR to do it go ahead. Don't worry about your BB/100. Since you're not that big a winner at .50/1 I might recommend a bigger than 300BB BR, perhaps 400BB so that you can get the feel of 1/2 without having to immediately jump back down with your tail between you legs. The variance should be worse at 1/2 (it will seem like it is even if it isn't because the bets are doubled)

I recently moved up to 1/2 and had 7.24/100BB at .50/100 through 13K hands. That's not why I moved up though. That stat by itself is bunk. The reason why I moved up was that I was confident in my skill. I felt like my play was at a level where I could handle better competition. I had been a steady winner all along but didn't move up due to lack of confidence. I lacked confidence because though I was winning I didn't understand the game well enough to explain why I was winning. Now I think I'm "getting it" and the next step in my education needs to be at 1/2.

My play has improved thanks to the fact that I use pokertracker religioulsy to scout and monitor my opponents. I "watched" thousands of hands at 1/2 before I moved which gave me great data on many of the regulars. I use this data to help me select tables now. I also fixed an aggression leak with the help of spider and ent. (thx guys) I wouldn't move up if I were you unless I was feeling very confident that you can consistently beat the level your currently are at. Finding leaks you didn't know were there will be much more expensive at 1/2.

Greg J · #5 12-04-2004, 08:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
recently moved up to 1/2 and had 7.24/100BB at .50/100 through 13K hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Now THAT is what I'm talking about!

btspider · #6 12-04-2004, 08:12 PM

its not going to happen unless you start hot.

i moved up after 10K hands at .50/1.00 with a 6 BB/100 winrate.

i moved up after 19K hands at 1/2 with a 1.5 BB/100 winrate and feel just fine at 2/4. i played more than 10K at 1/2 due to a monster downswing tho. i was at 10K with a 2.5 BB/100 rate. comfort and bankroll are more important than winrate.

droolie · #7 12-04-2004, 08:13 PM

It feel good to say my BB/100 but I know I was not a very good player for over half of those hands. I may have just been luckier than you. Nothing more.

Greg J · #8 12-04-2004, 08:16 PM

Thanks for the replies guys.

Droolie: I have seen NUMEROUS downswings and insane variance. How is 1/2 ever more eratic? I hear the players are better, so intuitively I would think this would lead to less variance.

droolie · #9 12-04-2004, 09:10 PM

Variance is luck. You run hot and cold with it. If your unlucky against better players expect it to have a greater impact on your BR. I think that .50/1 has such terrible players that if your on a total rollercoaster constantly running 150BB in both dirctions, it's your play that's causing it not theirs. There is some leak in your game that is preventing you from consitantly winning against the poor competition your playing against.

Against bad players they may beat you more often with garbage but there will be enough dead money in all pots to more than make up for this in terms of + effect on your BB/100 winrate. You should be regularly encountering people who practically hand you their chips on a silver platter which should also help with variance control. I would expect most good players at .50/1 could shrug off a huge downswing every 5000 hands maybe but the rest of the time feeling like they're steadily crushing it. Maybe the leak in your game will not be relavent at a higher limit against better players and your variance will actually drop. You won't know until you try I guess but this seems counterintuitive to me.